Replies to post #181329 on Biotech Values

[kiroset]

Re: AQXP

Thanks for the introduction to AQXP.

The science is intriguing. It's a new target, so that always comes with some risk. But it appears to be a well defined target, and restricted mostly to the immune system.

One concern is that they ran an earlier trial in asthma and the results there don't appear incredible. I guess that was probably the wrong indication, as perhaps that response is dominated by different pathways. But there are a lot of haywire immune system indications... Also some minor gastro side effects, not life-threatening, but not what you want in a daily medication. I notice they have backed off the dose in the 2 recent trials, going from 450 -> 200mg.

Now they are going after some unmet needs - which could offer a faster path to approval. Although, sometimes unmet needs are unmet because they are really hard...

Still, I agree with the risk/reward calculation. I can't see how it goes much lower from here until trial readouts in H1 2015. Burn rate is not high at the moment. At the current valuation, I might just have to nibble.