Replies to post #185184 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[BioBS2012]

I'm guessing we have about 200 patients already.eom

Here are my projections FWIW (based on the assumptions therein)

The table below shows the ESTIMATED number of patients that would event based on the following assumptions:  
  1) # of sites at 121 as of July-end 2014.  
  2) No new sites added from here on out  
  3) Enrollments begins 3 months after site opening - e.g. for a site that open in January,2014, the first patient would only be enrolled in April, 2014 - so if 5 sites opened in January, there would be 5 patients enrolled in April  
  4) After initial enrollment, additional patients would enroll at the rate of 1 patient every two months (column 0.5 - 0.5/month enrollment) OR 1 patient every 4 months (column 0.25 - 0.25/month enrollment)  
  5) SOC MOS assumed at 7 months - meaning if 5 patients enolled in April and 2.5 got SOC, then 7-months later 1.25 would have evented (November). BAVI MOS assumed to be conservatively 60% higher then SOC MOS  
  Ofcourse life is never linear nor as straightforward as these assumptions, but based on the above assumptions, we would have 115 patients evented by June 2015 if enrollment rate is one patient every two-months, and 82 patients evented if enrollment rate is 1 patient every 4-months.  
 		0.5	0.25	  
  	Month	Events	Events	Month  
  2014	January			January  
  	Feb.			Feb.  
  	March			March  
  	April			April  
  	May			May  
  	June			June  
  	July			July  
  	August	0.00	0.00	August  
  	Sept.	0.00	0.00	Sept.  
  	October	2.03	2.03	October  
  	Nov.	4.06	4.06	Nov.  
  	Dec.	7.11	6.60	Dec.  
  2015	January	13.20	11.68	January  
  	Feb.	30.47	27.42	Feb.  
  	March	48.14	42.55	March  
  	April	72.52	60.84	April  
  	May	91.00	70.08	May  
  	June	115.58	82.37	June  
  	July	140.16	94.66	July  
  	August	164.73	106.95	August  
  	Sept.	189.31	119.23	Sept.  
  	October	213.89	131.52	October  
  	Nov.	238.47	143.81	Nov.  
  	Dec.	263.05	156.10	Dec.  
   
  
  Here is the Enrollment Estimates Corresponding to the above table  
 		0.5	0.25	  
  	Month	Enroll	Enroll	Month  
  2014	January	0.0	0.0	January  
  	Feb.	0.0	0.0	Feb.  
  	March	0.0	0.0	March  
  	April	5.0	5.0	April  
  	May	10.0	10.0	May  
  	June	17.5	16.3	June  
  	July	32.5	28.8	July  
  	August	75.0	67.5	August  
  	Sept.	118.5	104.8	Sept.  
  	October	178.5	149.8	October  
  	Nov.	224.0	172.5	Nov.  
  	Dec.	284.5	202.8	Dec.  
  2015	January	345.0	233.0	January  
  	Feb.	405.5	263.3	Feb.  
  	March	466.0	293.5	March  
  	April	526.5	323.8	April  
  	May	587.0	354.0	May  
  	June	647.5	384.3	June  
  	July		414.5	July  
  	August		444.8	August  
  	Sept.		475.0	Sept.  
  	October		505.3	October  
  	Nov.		535.5	Nov.  
  	Dec.		565.8	Dec. 
  
  
  If you plot these they really do look like lovely HOCKEY-STICKS wink

[spankyvol]

I'm guessing 36 enrolled patients.