Hi Adam, The v-Wave is more conservative than my own market risk indicator I've used. At the 2009 bottom it left ~10% cash in the register which might be comfort for some but "missed opportunity" for others. Certainly that would help to explain some of the differences between the v-Wave and my own indicator. For the first time since I started collecting data in 1982, my own indicator not only touched zero cash suggested, but went to negative numbers. In other words, it was suggesting I go on Margin right at the bottom of the 2008-2009 panic. I didn't, as being essentially 100% invested was exciting enough for me!
Generally the v-Wave and my own risk indicator are harmonious in direction but not necessarily in amplitude. Both have been "stuck" in their ranges for a long time with little or no movement. This is possibly reflected in the relatively low VIX numbers we've been seeing.
All that is interesting as we watch a full percent dissipate from the indexes today. One thing about the various things I watch, when in their respective neutral ranges they don't tell much except possibly the direction they are moving. I set each up with 80% of the data being neutral and 10% each being either bullish or bearish. Right now I have all components being neutral and overall the reading is neutral. That doesn't say a lot. Last week's data gave me a very modest amount of upward pressure on risk.
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