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Replies to #42685 on lowtrade

lowtrade

07/30/14 11:52 AM

#42687 RE: foxwoodsfan #42685

Remember my (TIP) about exiting an island reversal pattern: You need to see the same volume in the fall, at the exit. Any other price rise will probably be the formation or continuation of a bottom channel.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SRPT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p34666516311

lowtrade

07/30/14 12:36 PM

#42688 RE: foxwoodsfan #42685

SRPT chart & lesson on entry/exit


While I'm thinking about entry and exit technical indicators. May as well repeat the signals, as I haven't covered the subject for sometime.
And: The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it!

My entry/exit indicators are the DMI & the 5,10,20 day moving averages.

DMI
When DI+ crosses above DI-, it says sentiment is changing. And an early small position can be taken. When ADX turn up with DI+, that confirms the phycology has changed and one can take a larger position. Reverse for exit. ADX is the key to conformation that retail had changed it's investing phycology and until you see the ADX reverse trend, odds are the price will flux.

Oh yea when the ADX gets below 10 or above 50, one can expect any new change in direction and price to be large.

5,10,20 MA's

When 5 crosses above the 10 day, early entry. When 10 crosses above the 20 day and the 5,10,20 is lined up in order, entry is confirmed. Reverse for exit.

A low risk trader should wait for confirmed entry and take 1 position entry. High risk 1 entry at early entry, average risk trader, 2 entries, small at early entry and large at confirmed.

Many times one enter/exit indicator will proceed the other. But generally they are fairly close. But one should either use company fundamentals or indicator previous history of which works best first, for that stock, for assistance with decision.

lowtrade

07/30/14 1:21 PM

#42689 RE: foxwoodsfan #42685

SRPT
Sorry, I made a dumb error about your stocks charting evaluation.

I teach look at a 6 month chart first. To see what's been happening investment wise. Then zero in to a 3 month to see what's been happening trade wise. I had a 3 month chart up when I checked SRPT. Just checked the 6 month and found the bottom island reversal I posted about was actually the end of a top island reversal pattern. Not the start of a bottom one.

That makes a big difference. Mainly that sentiment change with the volume spike matching the top gap up has changed and the retrace to fill the first gap is over.

So todays pop doesn't need large volume to expect any continuation to fill the retrace gap down. There is no bottom island reversal as I in error thought. Plus seeing the ADX in the 3 month chart I posted is above 50 and reversed trend. This pop could be the signal of a large come back move. And the gap above should start filling. There is an early entry signal in the DMI now and the 5,10 cross is real close. So any continuation I posted shouldn't happen, because on low volume today, isn't correct. It can continue.

My bad, things are actually more rosy then I first posted. Retail phycology should begin to shift with gap above and change in sentiment already happened, because the top island reversal play was ended. Targets on this move should be 26 gap fill, then 30 next resistance and 33 and 35 next resistances, Like in a single bottom bounce play. In & out stepping up till continuation stops.


6 month chart, see the top gap up island I missed. Sorry
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SRPT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p78653488911