III, Could be, but your technicals have an uncanny ability to predict actionable news occurences. Today's rise was due to news on PFE and MRK reporting, and speculation they are looking to buy oncology companies. Since ARIAD fits that story, we moved up 10%+ on b/o spec. I note that PCYC is up 11%+, same story (they got an upgrade also). Having said that, these BP would be unlikely buyers of ARIAD, but you never know.
While being above $6 is better than where we were, for the AGM we were at $6.30, and just prior to that $7 when we got manipulated up for the convertible. $7 to sub $5 on no news and back on b/o spec to $6, but little actual news from the company. Last year, around $19 pps. ARIAD recently announced a 10 year study giving away free drug to hundreds in the UK. That's about it.
Next Wednesday is Q2 earnings. Unless they are way over $16MM xEu in revs, other stats will be more telling. Q2 new Rx will be a key stat, drops another, % of 15mg dosing another. Chronic phase users another. Q2 expectations should be modest. Recovery with the REMS/EASU was disappointing. We recovered to only about 1/2 of the paying customer numbers through April, 400 had taken the drug with 25% drops. Drops rose from 20% to 25%, and I expect that number to edge up as the patient pop mix as a group is the most ill of CML pops. Safe bet we were at 300 +/- paying end of April. Also, more docs moved patients to 15mg dosing, about 60% of 30/45mg price. That gets fixed in Q3 and will have partial effect in Q4, and fully show in Q1 2015 results.
For me, the most telling stat to watch is the avg monthly gain of patients. Before the crash, we were pulling in close to 40 NRx/week I recall, or around net 100 new patients/month.
Long way to go, and with this BoD, only an aggressive, hostile, b/o gets us whole sooner than years out.
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