T1D SYSTEM TNA and TZA TRADES SUMMARY .............................................................. TNA TRADES
JUN 16 BUY 75.99..............JUN 17 SELL TARGET 78.27 = 3% JUN 26 BUY 78.71.............JUN 30 SELL TARGET 81.07 = 3% JUL 10 BUY 74.85 .............JUL 14 SELL TARGET 77.11 = 3% JUL 18 BUY 72.70 .............JUL 23 SELL TARGET 74.88 = 3 % JUL 29 BUY 70.88 .........JUL 31 SELL STOP LOSS 68.89 = -2.8% AUG 4 BUY 67.61 ...................AUG 11 SELL TARGET 69.63=3% ............................................................... TZA TRADES JUN 10 buy at close = 14.84.......................JUN 11 Sell target = 15.28 = 3% JUN 23 BUY AT CLOSE 14.30 ............JUN 24 SELL TARGET =14.73 = 3% JUL 2 BUY NEAR CLOSE = 13.69 ......JUL 7 SELL TARGET = 14.10 = 3% JUL 15 BUY AT CLOSE = 15.30 ........JUL 17 SELL TARGET =15.76 = 3% JUL 25 BUY AT CLOSE = 15.61 .......JUL 28 SELL TARGET = 16.07 = 3% JUL 31 BUY AT CLOSE = 16.57 .........AUG 1 SELL TARGET = 17.06 = 3%
.......................................................... SUMMARY 12 COMPLETED TRADES SINCE 6/10/2014 0 OPEN TRADE GAIN 11X3 = 33% GAIN SINCE 6/10/2014 1 LOSS = 2.8% TOTAL FOR 2 MONTHS = 30.2% YEAR ESTIMATE = 30.2 X 6 = 180 %
As you know both Jaws and I have been watching your TD1 system. For sure it is giving some impressive monthly yields and therefore I am now allocating a small portion of my capital to your system. So far only one live trade and it was a loser, which is always the way it starts when I go live with a new system. That is why I always start out small and build my positions with each profitable trade.
However, one thing that I could never get out of my head was the number of trades that yielded 7-12% and yet some trades just managed to eke out the 3% gain. So I started looking to see if I could figure out why and I think I came up with something that could potential almost double the yield from the current numbers.
Below is my chart for tracking the TNA trades. The green rectangles are good 3% trades and the one red one is a failed trade. If you look you will see that during June the 3 trades all made gains much bigger than 3%. But then in Jul, 2 of the trades just managed to make the 3% and one trade failed. If you look the MACD at the bottom you will see that Jun was in an uptrend and Jul was in a down trend.
So I am making the assumption that during an uptrend the TNA trades are going to be much more profitable than 3%. This would normally correlate to waves 1, 3, and 5. During the same time frame the TZA trades will represent counter trend waves (2 and 4) and they will be much smaller in movement.
So here is a new set of rules I want to try for exiting a trade. These rules will apply to both the TNA and TZA charts with MACD. 1. If the MACD trend in down, exit at 3%. 2. If the MACD trend is flat or up, exit at the next signal for the reverse trade.
As an example for #2, the current TNA trade that was opened 8/4 was still in a down trend at that time. But by the time the 3% sell signal came on 8/11, the trend had turned up. Based on this fact, the exit will not come until TZA gets a buy signal. This current run now has a 10.3% gain. They is way better than just 3%.
In the spread sheet below you can see the effect on the gains, they almost doubled.
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