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¦ BIIB (TP$400, Outperform) – Pre-open release/call at 9:00am ET on Wednesday 7/23: For Q2 earnings, we are in-line on revenues (CS: $2.15B/+25% Y/Y vs. Consensus: $2.14B/+24%) and EPS (CS: $2.79/+21% vs. Consensus: $2.80/+22%). Tecfidera remains a key area of focus, with specific attention on the recent EU launch. We currently estimate Q2 Tecfidera sales of $570M/+197% (vs. $556M/+189% for consensus), Tysabri sales of $419M/+8% (vs. $442M/+14% for consensus) and Avonex sales of $761M/-2% (vs. $744M/-4% for consensus). We expect most of the call will be focused on: (1) Early experience from the recent US launch of Alprolix in Hemophilia B and preparations for recently FDA-approved Eloctate in Hemophilia A; (2) Granularity on the Tecfidera launch/ramp in the EU; (3) Any visible impact from the February-launched 3-times-a-week Copaxone, and potential impact from a '14/'15 generic Copaxone launch; and (4) Whilst no significant updates on the pipeline are expected we expect (continued) call attention on particularly Anti-LINGO-1 (RENEW PIII trial in AON due in Dec) and Tysabri (ASCEND PIII trial in SPMS due mid 2015).
¦ GILD (TP$110, Outperform) – Post-close release/call at 4:30pm ET on Wednesday 7/23: The most important headline number is Sovaldi Q2 revenues. We are forecasting WW Sovaldi Q2 sales of $2.98B, which is slightly above consensus of $2.92B. Based on IMS Rx data, we estimate US Sovaldi Q2 sales of $2.61B, which is comprised of in-demand sales (adjusted by our capture rate) of $2.56B and inventory stocking of $53M. This sales estimate assumes a WAC price of $1,000 per pill and a 15.0% gross-to-net adjustment. On high-level financial metrics, we are slightly above consensus on both total revenues (CS: $6.00B/+117% Y/Y vs. Consensus: $5.67B/+105% Y/Y) and EPS (CS: $1.87/+296% Y/Y vs. Consensus: $1.70 Y/Y +265%). For the HIV franchise, we project Atripla sales of $891M/-5% (vs. $893M/-5% for consensus), Truvada sales of $779M/-4% (vs. $800M/-1% for consensus), Viread sales of $260M/+4% (vs. $240M/-4% for consensus), Stribild sales of $262M/+164% (vs. $260M/+162% for consensus), and Complera sales of $287M/+52% (vs. $280M/+48% for consensus). We anticipate that the majority of the call to be centered on: (1) Pricing strategy for Sofosbuvir/Ledipasvir in HCV especially in light of recent political scrutiny of Sovaldi's pricing; (2) Granularity on Sovaldi launch dynamics in the US specifically on "anticipatory" warehousing as all-oral, interferon regimens are expected to launch later this year; (3) Further details on the mid- to long-term strategy to build a sustainable HCV market; (4) Potential impact of TAF on sustaining GILD's position in HIV in the face of generics later in the decade (5) “What's next?” after HCV and (6) Agency cost/Capital allocation/M&A.
¦ CELG (TP$112.5, Outperform) – Pre-open release/call at 9:00am ET on Thursday 7/24: We are forecasting both in-line total revenues (CS: $1.85B/+15% Y/Y vs. Consensus: $1.84B/+15% Y/Y) and EPS (CS: $0.91/+19% Y/Y for CS vs. Consensus: $0.89/+17% Y/Y). Revlimid continues to be the primary focus. We project Revlimid sales ($1.22B/+16%) to be in-line with consensus ($1.22B/+16%). In addition, we are in-line on sales for Abraxane (CS: $207M/+34% vs. Consensus: $212M/+37%), Pomalyst/Imnovid (CS: $157M/+138% vs. Consensus: $149M/+126%) and Otzela (CS: $1.5M vs. Consensus: $4M). Based on IMS Rx data, we estimate in-demand Otezla sales to be $6.5M. Recall, CELG will be using the sell-through method to report Otezla sales during the early phases of the launch. Our estimates are based on a WAC price of $1,627 per Rx, 15% gross to net discount, and ~4000 Rx's (~61 pills/TRx). We expect the call to be focused primarily on: (1) Updates on the ongoing Revlimid patent litigation case against Actavis/Natco; (2) Details on the US launch dynamics for Otezla in psoriatic arthritis; (3) Granularity on ongoing launches of Abraxane in pancreatic cancer and Pomalyst/Imnovid in multiple myeloma and (of course!)...(4) Domain Domination and the pipeline particularly on MOR-202 (data is expected to be released in multiple myeloma at ASH in December 2014) and GED-
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