It seems that right now the market has BAA priced between about .285/29 and .34/.35 depending on investor sentiment. Aside from Banro's Q2 fins around August 15th Banro investors have nothing on the horizon until Q3 production is announced around October 10th.
Will BAA hit 10,000 a month with Twangiza? Will Namoya hit 3,000 month? The market will decide what BAA is worth to them by speculating how close Banro will get to hitting the Q3 13,000 ounces of gold per month target.
As of right now my calcs which are totally unofficial put BAA at .50 when gold hits $1,430. My numbers are based on Banro talking to their bond holders (BlackRock, BMO and about a dozen others) and convincing them to either let Banro borrow the money they need for Namoya from somewhere or by having Banro issue 10-12% bonds for likely $30-50M.
That $30-50M would give Banro breathing room of $15-35M in cash should a large piece of machinery break or something. If instead of bonds they allow Banro to borrow more it would likely be a $30-50M line of credit somewhere. That way Banro only borrows what they need but the bondholders would be taking additional risk with no additional reward.
It is about 4 weeks to Q2 financials so the real question now is if BAA will give us a news update before the Q2 CC.
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