Looking back, Ariad's future was defined in January. With Iclusig limping badly back onto the market, label reduced by 2/3 of eligible population, the only thing that has moved the stock up has been buyout rumors. Period.
Then, ASCO. With great efficacy numbers and sadly, confirmation of AE's, even though reduced by dosing, it is in the books and here we are. One more dilution followed, and we are absolutely looking at another dilution in early/mid-2015, if not sold.
HB described Japan as 'lucrative'. I was told by IR, that ONYX Japan franchise went for $50mm, and that was a 'high' in terms of water marks. I don't think I was sandbagged, I think expectations were set.
So Japan is $50mm or less. Add $55mm y/e cash, and $120 next year, including Europe, and the $177 cash raise, and you get $400MM to spend all of next year. The company says we have enough cash to get to mid 2016. The burn rate of this company is greater than $350/year. Another dilution in the spring of 2015, before the AGM - 100% certainty if we aren't sold. We have no hope of b/e until late 2017/2018. At this rate, we'd have 300mm shares out, with $0.00 eps.
The BoD won't raise prices. They see the same math I do. Denner sees it. The market is buying none of HB's chastened bravado.
Worse, the only upside comes from molecule next. If it fails in any way, we are stuck down here, and a dilution is essentially ridiculous ,as there are no acceptable terms that a lender would agree, because hedging with more shorting would be futile.
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