I've decided to stick with BAA although if management does something stupid or if I don't like what I hear on the Q2 conference call next month then I will walk away from BAA.
With that said I am starting a new chart. The old chart is busted beyond repair. My entire 7 months of BAA holdings will now sit in limbo. Maybe they'll come back into play in fiscal year 2014...but I'm not holding my breath.
I'm now treating BAA as an entirely new stock of which I hold no shares. NOTE THAT I HAVEN'T SOLD A SINGLE SHARE OF MY HOLDINGS...THEY JUST PLAY NO PART IN MY TRADING DECISIONS FOR BAA RIGHT NOW
I'll be taking my first position in BAA either tomorrow or Monday. Unlike my previous holdings which were 70-80% long and 20-30% flip I will be more aggressive and making many more moves.
Currently I'm looking for a true bottom around .30 but it will likely be very brief. Earlier I felt BAA be around .33/.34 with $1,340 gold. I feel that is still accurate. One very big factor will be the financing they come up with for the Namoya repairs. This is where those new directors are going to show us what they got or crash and burn.
Since that is an unknown I believe BAA could trade with a lot of volatility between .30 and .35 but once it is known the baseline will be that $1,340 gold makes BAA worth about .34. But nothing is written in stone until we get more information and we may not have it until the Q2 conference call or later.
I want to clarify why I didn't sell my BAA holdings when I'm playing this as if it is a new stock.
The reason is I think BAA will come back from this inside of 30 days. If I didn't I would sell for the tax loss and then wait 30 days to buy back in. I don't think I'll be able to do that.
This also allows me time to make decisions. I can build this new BAA position but if BAA goes down more...or trades sideways I will have up until the end of November to sell my current holdings and then take the tax loss.
If I do that in November it means I won't be able to add to my new BAA position for 30 days.
In a perfect world I'll simply have two holdings of BAA that I can combine and trade as one in a few months when BAA jumps back to the .50 cent range. In a not so perfect world I can sell what I have right now around Thanksgiving and take a break from buying BAA till after New Year.
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