Replies to post #18675 on ScripsAmerica Inc. (SCRCQ)

[coolerheadsprevail]

I totally disagree with you. (2A) "What this disclosure tells us is that (i) SCRC records revenues when orders are shipped".... Receiving an approved ORDER does not qualify for revenue recognition. SHIPMENT only qualifies for revenue recognition.

The presumption that I am making -- and a presumption is all that any of us can make based upon the meager clues provided in the SEC filings -- is that SCRC is actually shipping product out the same day it receives payment approval from the insurance company.

I am no expert on compounding pharmacy operations, but I would imagine that Main Ave either has inventory of stock on hand ready-to-ship or it begins the production of an order while waiting for insurance approval -- and that once approval is received, the Rx is ready (or at least VERY close to being ready) to ship. Point being, intuitively, I do not see any reason for any material delay to ship the product out once the insurance approval is received.

And even if the shipment is not the same-day, I do not believe the difference caused by any backlog to be material for the following reason:

(1)
At $2.7M, this translates to an avg daily rate of over $90k for JUN. At $1.6M for MAY, this translates to an avg daily rate of $52k for MAY.

(2)
What this means, is that even if we were to say that approved orders on 6/30/14 did not ship yet, we have to apply the same cut-off scenario to the beginning of the month as well (i.e. that approved orders on the last day of MAY didn't ship in MAY either but instead shipped on 6/1).

What this means is that for each day of delay between insurance approval and actual shipment, this $2.7M in JUN revenues may be OVERSTATED by $90k -- BUT, it also means that JUN revenues has been UNDERSTATED by $52k for those orders approved on 5/31 but not shipped until 6/1. This translates to a net potential overstatement of $38k for JUN.

Relative to the $2.7M of total JUN "approved orders", this $38k is wholly immaterial and is essentially no different than a rounding error.

Even extrapolating this out further, let's assume that Main Ave doesn't even begin to manufacture the Rx until approval is obtained and that an Rx doesn't even typically ship out for 5 business days following insurance approval. So what this means is that the potential overstatement for JUN is now $190k ($38k/day x 5 days). A few months ago, $190k may have been a lot, but in relation to the $2.7M, this difference would have only resulted in JUN numbers being $2.5M instead of $2.7M. And I don't think that the market would have interpreted or reacted to $2.5M any differently than it did to $2.7M.


THAT ALL BEING SAID, Bob did SCRC and its shareholders no favors with yet another vague inconsistently worded PR. Considering the long-running nature of this type of behavior, one is really left with no choice but to conclude that Bob/Jeff are either intentionally trying to thwart transparency by repeatedly muddying up the water (which naturally begs the question "Why?") or they are both sorely incompetent. Take your pick. But neither is good.

Appreciate the dialogue, countrmike.