Replies to post #2909 on National Bank of Greece ADR (fka NBGGY)

[Alpha Investor]

These are my thoughts expedite

I think a lot of ihub traders get very focused on short term trading, narrow margins and day by day news that fluctuate stocks.

Imo especially with venture like this take look at the 3, 5 and 10 year goals. This as a central bank does have low obsolete risk and imo a nice stay of execution as its the central bank. Even with status quo things I think min probability this bank gets broken up.

So once we get past that matter determining value and forward thinking. Price to book sits like 1.17 so it's trading on value rarely see that so value imo is A+++ but what future price? All time high was what 500 or 600 so this stock has taken a hurricane beating but no indication return highs. I put growth rate on this avg 15% year safe until something major happens. 10 years I could see a 85 to 100 value.

Long!!!!

[yannigr]

OK this is a liiiiiiiiiiittle late response. About a month.

About politics. The left party is still first in the polls and the financial minister is doing his best to send even more voters to that direction.
We also have the Presidential election in the first months of 2015 that could lead in parliament elections, because what Greeks do best in periods of peace, from ancient times, is to divide and start hitting each other(does anyone know about ancient Greek city states? I guess Sparta rings a few bells). The possibilities for the government and the main opposition party to come to an agreement about the person who will be elected as president, are lower than ...zero.

As for the banks. Latest rumors talk about another recap, about 5-6 billion euros. There are two thing you don't want to know. First how much this is in dollars. Second how much from those 5-6 billions are considered that they are needed from NBG.
Best case scenario that 5-6 billions will be wrong and the final number will be closer to 1-3 billions.