Right on
I agree with all this, and I am only posting to thank you for taking the time to lay it all out.
The only thing I would add is to temper enthusiasm about the timeline. If TRP is not eager to hustle this thing forward, it may be until the end of the pilot that we hear anything - October or so this year. And then, they could still take more months to make decisions. It may require multiple layers of signing off, maybe moving the AOT to another location, and maybe a small order, and more trialing, before they decide to do a massive fit out of their crude oil transportation infrastructure (if they ever do that). We are not sure at what point other Midstream operators will have the option to install or trial the AOT. Let us say it is after the pilot expires.
That would mean possibly another pilot with another Midstream player in October or November. That pilot might take another six months before a major order is generated.
We have some hopes of hearing about an Upstream announcement before the end of summer, according to what Mr. Simundson was quoted saying in a recent press release. But unexpected delays could drag that on further.
One thing I'm not clear on: we have no idea whether the AOT actually works on the scale that it is now being put to use by TRP, do we? The only data that is public is the RMOTC tests. I wonder how TRP came up with those lease and pricing numbers? They must have simply extrapolated from the RMOTC tests? What if there's a situation where, as the technology scales up, its effectiveness drops? Do we know this is not the case, except by the fact that they have kept it on the pipeline for four months? They might still do that if it only gave a flow increase of a few percentage points, rather than 10 or 20% as we may wish.
I am not sure what incremental increase in flow the AOT would need to deliver to be worthwhile for transportation operators. (Though, note: if it is only a 1% flow increase, that would equate to 6,000 more barrels per day [on a 600k/bpd line], which is of theoretical value to TRP 6k*$4*30=$720,000/month.)
In any case, I do not dissent at all from the generally remarkable progress this team has made, nor the longterm prospects of the company. The timeline you have sketched is extremely useful in reminding us all of the macro picture, of the enormous progress that has been made, and the amazing speed at which it has been made. In my opinion, the demands for an expedited timeline are simply unrealistic. This is a detailed, complex, high-stakes process. There is no messing around when it comes to billion dollar companies and world class infrastructure moving crude oil. It's the real deal. That it would take a great deal of time, effort, and care is all to be expected. I'm glad the company doesn't read these message boards, and is instead getting on with its business. We'll be happy campers in a couple of years.
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