Replies to post #17012 on Newlead Holdings Ltd. (fka NEWLF)

[ODIE35]

Great post

[Rhee]

To be fair, we are conflating things. I am a mathematician, my friend. In fact when I was in school, I once derived the proof of the Fib sequence in an exam. Certainly the financial industry uses them as a tool for forecasting. But they do not in fact forecast anything. They provide a grid based on a certain sequence and proportionality, if you will. And then the various forces serve to direct the stock within this grid, in a predictable manner.

But I was also inferring the calculation of 100% measured moves, i.e. exact targets off existing velocity. This is where the speculation comes in. I.e., it relates to the momentum itself not their measuring stick. …As Freud says, sometimes a stick is just a stick.

This said, if you don't think emotion can find its way into an autobot algorithm, you are mistaken… ;)

[Rhee]

Ulfahl, we can calculate momentum:

The first leg down after the T12 was from .50 to .23. Then the stock bounced to .37. So, mathematically (human emotion included within the model), we would thus expect a 100% measured move target of:

1st leg: .50 - .23 = .27
2nd leg: .37 - .27 = .10

Now, this is the 100% move target. The stock can obviously also stop at a fib retracement percentage of the 100% move. But generally, stocks fulfill entire moves in the absence of a new catalyst. Also, we would expect the stock to stall at the support levels. Today, we know because of pivot-point math that it should stall in the .17 and .15 ranges.

You can say this is not science. You can call it whatever you like. But it is very helpful in deciding whether to be long, short or sidelines.