Replies to post #43424 on Lehman Brothers Financial SA (LEHNQ)

[guster0]

IMHO the OBS might have a better shot only because of the NOL's but you may find the NOL's gone once the estate is fully liquidated and that won't leave anything for OBS.

That one is a wait and see game that I hope to see concluded by Jan 2018 but that is definitely a swag of magnanimous proportions!

[Crumbda]

OBS is the last of anyone to get paid. Personally, I would look at the WMIH bankruptcy and see how different classes were distributed in the end. Commons got very very little, preferred got a bit more but still next to nothing. I would imagine a similar scenario here. CT's may fare slightly better as they are Par with highest preferred.

The things to watch are cancellation of debt (COD) which will reduce the amount NOL outstanding. If $100+B of debt is still outstanding (I don't have the exact number off the top of my head) and 65-70B of NOL, all of the NOL will be lost when debt is cancelled to Satisfy in Full.

Instead, look for a negotiation that will not cancel debt, but will exchange the remaining debt for shares in LAMCO (per POR, this is the entity that would emerge). This is where CT's and OBS shares stand a chance to get a remaining piece of the pie. There are several factors that go into whether this will happen and how much each may get (Debtors vs. Equity). How much illiquid assets are remaining, the value of the NOL, how well negotiations go, etc. The emerging company must remain in the same line of business where losses were sustained that generated the NOL. If merging with a new company LAMCO must be at least 51% owner in order for NOL to be preserved.

Personally, and I know twowho and fuss will disagree, that we are nearing the point where assets are no longer sellable, and legal fees could exceed any recovery from sales of assets. When that point is reached, fees>money generated from sales, what is the point of continuing to sell assets? No money will end up going to creditors, it will all go to lawyers. This is where remaining debt and equity will want to settle and keep the greedy lawyers out of the remaining value. How long will it take? Who knows and no guess from me. The stays that were built into the POR are now exhausted and only temporarily extended until a new scheduling order can be finalized and ordered by Chapman. That is where we will find out the next phase. For now, sit back, wait, relax and either let everything its course or don't.

If Fuss is so sure of his DD, not sure why he would waste his time here. Should have already sold to take max profits as this thing is surely going back to 0, in his world. I guess he is just an internet white knight trying to save us all...