Replies to post #17722 on The New CS Board

[dindindon]

06/22/14 Calculate the Pullback target

An analytic way to calculate the pullback target, for academic discussion only.

This is the continuation part for the prior post link

The target for wave (5) is 1970-2050 (see prior post)

The pullback wave 4 (4 with a circle in the chart) can be estimated by:

 
            deflator coefficients * wave (5) 
            where  the deflator coefficients are: 
            0.79012,  0.8100,  0.89198, 0.92456, 0.96191 
            (to be elaborated) 
 

assume wave (5) peak is 1970,
and apply it to the deflator coefficients,
then
the pullback target are:

 1895 = 0.96191 * 1970,   50SMA   (as of 06/20) is 1897.47 
 1821 = 0.92456 * 1970,   200SMA (as of 06/20) is 1817.73 
 1757 = 0.89198 * 1970,   0.500 retracement  (1970 1560) is 1765  
 1557 = 0.79012 * 1970,   this is a large pullback 
                                         wave iv @1560.33, an important support 
 

[dindindon]

06/26/14 SPX – trend synopsis

(1) Review 1 (Status quo ante)

02/28/14
Index takes out the important pivots 1860.11 (highlighted in green in the wave table), the 1900 zone is becoming ‘reachable’.
whether the (middle to long term) target 1944.65 (highlighted in red) will be materialized is depending on how the pullback looks like.

Wave table: link

1737.92 02/05 a Low before 02/28
1897.28 04/04 index almost hit 1900!
1814.36 04/11 this is a classical 0.5 retracement (1897.28-1737.92)
1900.53 05/23 index closed above 1900
1949.44 06/06 index closed above 1944.65

Index pricked 1897.28 on 04/04 then reversed. The first attempt on 1900 failed.
However, the pullback did not go larger than 0.618 retracement, and the trend-line/moving averaged has maintained a bullish stance, therefore, Index knocked out 1900 and captured the target 1944.65 quickly.

A 0.618 pullback is the gauge – detailed explanation how this gauge works Link 03/15/14

(2) Review 2 ( Status quo )

05/24/14 01:57:15 PM
1931.41 is the pivot/inflection point to gauge whether SPX will enter the zone 1970-2050.

1970 (1970.89) in this chart link
2050 (2047.41) in the above Wave table

06/05/14 SPX knocks out 1931.41
it seems only as matter of time, SPX will enter the zone 1970-2050.

Index pricked 1968.17 on 06/24 then reversed. The first attempt on 1970 failed.
The sign of a larger pullback is when index dips below 1931.87 (0.236 1968.17 1814.36)
A large size pullback, for example 0.5 out of (1968.17, 1560.33) is 1764.25.

 
 1895 = 0.96191 * 1970,   50SMA  (as of 06/26) is 1907.50  
 1821 = 0.92456 * 1970,   200SMA (as of 06/26) is 1823.52  
 1757 = 0.89198 * 1970,   0.500 retracement  (1970 1560) is 1765   
 1557 = 0.79012 * 1970,   this is a large pullback  
                                         wave iv @1560.33, an important support 
 

Latest chart link

(3) Outlook

05/12/14 link
Both bearish & bullish scenario suggests there might be a few more hundred points to go. the Fibonacci extensions give an estimate from 2130 to 2214.

02/08/14 link
IMHO, the Long term weekly chart hints a possible recurring rhythm.

long term weekly chart: link

In overall, it is still very bullish.
As long as bull can hold the critical support zone 1450-1620 +/- .
the bull market (since 2009) is firmly intact.

Dow Jones Secular Bull Market Projection
By: Trader MC | Wed, Jun 25, 2014
http://www.safehaven.com/article/34311/dow-jones-secular-bull-market-projection

SPX http://static.safehaven.com/authors/tradermc/34311_b_large.png
DJI http://static.safehaven.com/authors/tradermc/34311_c_large.png

Only ‘Da-Powers’ know where is the dynamic balance point to hold the Dollar’s hegemony, It seems they are losing the control in a progressive way. But, as long as the dynamic balance point is maintained, Fed has the upper hand to maneuver.