Replies to post #5842 on Canopy Growth Corp (WEED)

[TMEvans]

Some 'analysis'

... on this subject of where patients/customers/clients/subscribers will come from, I posted this some time ago:

In the context of an article that was pointed out to me: http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/07/26/how-one-doctor-made-500000-as-canadas-top-medical-marijuana-provider-until-police-came-knocking/

I got to wondering, and did some research:

Family Doctors in Ontario & Quebec = 21,608 per CMA Statistics: http://www.cma.ca/multimedia/CMA/Content_Images/Inside_cma/Statistics/01Spec&Prov.pdf

Total physicians in Ont & Que = 44,524

Assume 93% of physicians are reticent to prescribe medicinal marijuana, leaving 7% of Total physicians contributing (in these two provinces only) = 3,116
(5% = 2,226, for conservative comparison)

Or, say 86% of family doctors will not, and 14% will = 3,025 prescribing doctors
(10% = 2,161, for conservative comparison)

So, in these two provinces alone, we might expect to see around 3,000 physicians prescribing medicinal marijuana.

(For an even more exciting illustration, you could estimate that nationwide of the almost 75,000 physicians, approximately 5,000 physicians would be onside. )

Interesting to note that approximately 60% of the country's theoretical prescribing physicians are in Tweed's back yard.

Ok, so with 3,000 physicians prescribing medicinal marijuana… make an assumption about how many prescriptions they might write … one a week? Two a week? Let’s say it’s 5 a month or 60 per year. That’s 180,000 new consumers a year. If Tweed captured only one-fifteenth of that, it amounts to 12,000 patients.

Again, this is ignoring specialty clinics that will pop up, enthusaistic doctors like the one in that article (who managed almost 4,000 a year single handedly), nurse practitioners, and anyone else qualified to sign the requisite documents.

If TWD captures only 5% to 10% of this market it would take them less than three years to hit full production capacity. (Based on assuming approximately 30,000 customers to consume 15,000 kg of product a year - I speculate that it might actually be between 20,000 and 30,000, which would obviously accelerate things

I'd be surprised if TWD had many more than 1,000 customers so far, though I have no particular insight. Whatever it is, I see it growing rapidly as their production expands.