Replies to post #15908 on OPTIONS TRADERS CO-OP

[royg1927]

Jane, I don't do Delta.

I just study the chart for the stock and mentally estimate from my indicators what is most likely to happen AND, more to the point, what I think the universe of other traders think.

In the SPY quickie just completed, I judged the stock to be headed strongly south and bet .18 that it would go further south, at least a few cents. Turned out to be the case, but quick changes on the 1-minute indicators were a clear signal to jump ship.

I say just learn to be accomplished in technical analysis of the stocks first, and then learn to apply the unusual aspects of options trading. It is complex. That's why so few succeed at it. Some go busted in the effort !

[royg1927]

Jane, Jane, Jane, listen to yourself.

My assumptions about INTC, and puts, were really off today

.. no one will want to hold it over the weekend with such a huge gap up.

Who said? You think you know what others should do.

Technical analysis is an effort to DEDUCE FROM THE DATA what they are likely to do. I do not eliminate such notions from consideration, but WHEN THE FUNDAMEANTALS (INCLUDING NEWS) DISAGREE WITH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, GO WITH THE TECHNICALS. Paste that on your monitor. But your TA has to be pretty good for any system to work very short term. At least 50-50 if your money management is superior.

Last time I said, learn TA first. Question: What technical indicators suggested that INTC would dive? Any? All day long?

Others "got it". That's why they continuously reduced their bids for your same strike. The pattern of options bid/ask price and que size is a useful indicator that few newbies use, but ALL the pros do. That's in addition to all the many indicators to apply to the underlying stock price action.