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Crazy Money

06/11/14 2:12 AM

#224310 RE: timster #224309

Could be past his bed time... :-)
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big-yank

06/11/14 6:47 AM

#224313 RE: timster #224309

You bought FNMA stock for around $1 in 2009. It's now worth just south of $5. That's what you get. And wherever the S/P goes in the future.

Many of you would benefit from reviewing the parallels between FnF and AIG. AIG took a bailout at the same time as FnF. It gave up 79.9% of its equity (stock, not warrants) to Uncle. And the S/P for all three were under a dollar. AIG also repaid Uncle, plus a sizeable surplus, just like the FnF Amendment 3 profit sweep.

Today, Uncle has sold off its stake in AIG and even after the dilution, AIG shares are trading at $55. I believe the reason Uncle sold the shares and closed out its position in AIG is that their business fully recovered after all the credit-swap garbage was written off and lessons learned by Benmosche.

Today, Uncle has maintained the conservatorship of FnF, continues to sweep proceeds and has not converted their warrants to stock and sold any off. What's the difference? Could be that all the litigation filed by "investors" disrupted any plans to pull back and release the beasts. Or it could be that the housing market remains so fragile as to make release too risky and potentially costly in terms of another bailout.