Replies to post #5073 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[sgolds]

j3pflynn, SARs economnic effect should be minor (although it may make a handy excuse in earnings reports from Taiwan). The outbreak does seem containable - the pattern in China was that as people recognized it, affected individuals made their way to cities where they were treated. China had a large spike and then things settled down.

In terms of numbers, SARs is minor when compared to flu, heart attacks and auto accidents. Its main economic affects are secondary, affecting travel. It won't deplete the factories or otherwise interfere with production.

[Haddock]

I think SARS could have an impact. See for example http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=9570 and lots of similar articles that appeared at the same time. It's one of the reasons I am not holding AMD stock right now.

As for Flu being worse, I think the fact that SARS has such a high death rate (around 15-20% by the latest reconing) including some relatively young, healthy people means that people are much more afraid of it, so the disruptive effect can be large.

I think we are going to continue to see localised outbreaks in various places in Asia with disruptions both in the supply and demand side of the PC business.

[Haddock]

"The WHO is worried, however, that some patients in China with mild SARS symptoms are getting 'false negative' diagnoses."

That would be bad! You could have a lot of young people who think they just have a very bad cold going around making a reservoir of infection all the while the official figures show that the outbreak is under control. Severity of symptons seems very age-dependent: Children don't suffer too badly at all.

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/HEALTH/05/23/sars/