And you thought the Arab Spring was disappointing.
By Christian Caryl March 23, 2015
Three years ago, on April 1, 2012, I had the great privilege to watch Burmese citizens take part in their first free election in a quarter of a century. As votes go, this was actually a pretty modest one .. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burmese_by-elections,_2012 — it was a mere by-election, so only a few seats in the national assembly were up for grabs. In practical terms, the voters’ choices had little real impact on the balance of forces in the country at large.
--- Yet that modest reality didn’t seem to matter. People seized the opportunity to exercise their rights with joy. ---
Yet that modest reality didn’t seem to matter. People seized the opportunity to exercise their rights with joy. Campaign rallies for the pro-democracy opposition party, the National League of Democracy (NLD), turned into raucous celebrations .. http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/04/02/a-bittersweet-celebration-in-burma/ .. of Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, the woman who has long embodied .. http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/03/30/the-ladys-leap-of-faith/ .. the democratic aspirations of Burmese languishing under one of the world’s harshest military dictatorships. Her party’s main rival, the pro-government United Solidarity Development Party (USDP), struggled to get traction. The outcome surprised no one: when the votes were counted, the NLD had won 43 of the 44 seats it contested. Aung San Suu Kyi entered parliament in triumph.
Burma appeared to be part of a larger regional trend. President Thein Sein .. http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/01/12/burmas-tightrope/ , the ex-general who set his country on a Gorbachev-style course of opening and reform in 2010, was said to have found his inspiration in neighbors like Indonesia .. http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2014/04/24/can-indonesia-be-a-model-for-myanmars-political-future/ , Thailand, and the Philippines, all of which had, at various moments in the years before, achieved strong economic growth after moving away from autocracy and toward democratic norms. (The fact that Burma was also eager to escape western sanctions and find new international partners who could save it from its confining dependence on China probably didn’t hurt.)
At the time, one could make a case that even authoritarian stalwarts in the region, like Malaysia and Singapore, were on the verge of some sort of popular reckoning. In a 2011 election, Singapore’s long-dominant ruling party was jolted .. http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/05/singapores_election .. by its worst electoral result in half a century (though it retained control of parliament). And the steadily rising power of Malaysia’s opposition, led by the dogged Anwar Ibrahim, suggested that the old guard was facing a new challenge from a self-assertive middle class increasingly resentful of official lies and entrenched corruption.
A degree of healthy skepticism was always warranted, of course. No one ever expected Southeast Asia, affected as it is by deep religious, ethnic, and economic divides, to glide effortlessly into a democratic nirvana. But I doubt that even the skeptics would have predicted that the aspirations of the region’s reformers would run aground quite so quickly.
--- Southeast Asia is now experiencing a broad backlash against democracy — a softer version, if you will, of what the Middle East has been enduring in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. ---
Southeast Asia is now experiencing a broad backlash against democracy .. http://www.cfr.org/democratization/southeast-asias-regression-democracy-its-implications/p33023 — a softer version, if you will, of what the Middle East has been enduring in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. “All across the [Southeast Asia] region, governments’ respect for rights is in free fall,” says Phil Robertson of Human Rights Watch. “And like everyone else in the region who cares about these issues, we’re scrambling to re-double our efforts.”
In Thailand, last year’s military coup has snuffed out the prospects for a return to democracy for the foreseeable future. While the junta that currently rules the country keeps touting its plans .. http://www.voanews.com/content/thailand-generals-promise-reform-amid-skepticism/2544053.html .. for ambitious national reforms, its ham-handed treatment .. http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1721654/thai-pair-jailed-2-and-half-years-over-play-crackdown-intensifies .. of even the mildest signs of opposition doesn’t bode well. The general pessimism is compounded by the lingering uncertainty surrounding 87-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Long celebrated by Thais as a reassuring source of political stability, the 87-year-old monarch is increasingly frail, and the possibility that he might soon leave the scene compounds the general sense of instability.
The political situation in Malaysia is also a mess. The country’s general election in 2013 ended up showing .. http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21577390-after-tainted-election-victory-najib-razak-needs-show-his-reformist-mettle-dangerous .. just how far the country is from anything like real democracy. Even though the ruling coalition earned just 47 percent of the popular vote, it ended up with 60 percent of the seats in parliament — the result of a highly distorted electoral system designed to favor those in power.
--- Just this past week the police even resorted to arresting Anwar’s daughter, Nurul Izzah Anwar, a member of parliament who was detained after criticizing the government’s actions against her father. ---
Thein Sein’s liberalization process also awakened hope by offering the prospect of a sustainable peace .. http://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/thein-sein-pushes-for-ceasefire-01122015162508.html .. in Burma’s multi-faceted civil war .. http://www.mmpeacemonitor.org/ , which has been going on from the moment the country achieved independence in 1948. Thein Sein’s government promised to launch fresh negotiations with all of the ethnic minority groups who have been fighting against the central government — the only exception, until recently, being the Kachin, a mostly Christian group who inhabit a resource-rich territory in the north.
But now a long-dormant conflict has re-emerged, drawing the Burmese army into ferocious fighting .. http://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/assault-03192015113203.html .. with Kokang militants along the Chinese border. This latest mini-war isn’t just a security issue; it also has potentially far-reaching implications for the domestic political situation. The fact that the Kokang are ethnic Chinese .. http://www.irrawaddy.org/contributor/kokang-conflict-will-china-respond.html .. means that the conflict offers the Burmese armed forces a perfect opportunity to portray themselves .. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/22/world/asia/myanmars-fight-with-rebels-creates-refugees-and-ill-will-with-china.html .. as heroic defenders against external aggression — and thus to improve their own standing in the approaching election. Ashley South, an analyst at Thailand’s Chiang Mai University, warns that the government’s willingness to negotiate with other restive minorities is dwindling: “I think the prospects of substantial political dialogue before the elections are close to zero.”
--- All this would be dispiriting enough. But it’s also striking how little the opponents of officialdom have been doing to fight back. ---
Southeast Asia is a place of mind-boggling complexity and dynamism, so it’s probably better to refrain from predictions about the future of democracy. But one thing is for sure: it’s getting harder to be an optimist.
.. on the suggestion that some are questioning Aung San Suu Kyi’s policies, gee, there would be internal unhappiness at decisions for sure, there always is .. yet, surely by know she would be pretty spot on, i'd guess, in her analysis of situations .. then deciding just how carefully pragmatic she must be ..
Australian-born baby denied refugee protection visa
Date 15.10.2014
An 11-month-old baby born in Australia to asylum-seeker parents has been denied a refugee visa by the country's Federal Court. The ruling throws further light on Canberra's hardline and controversial immigration policy.
Baby Ferouz Myuddin was born prematurely in hospital in the eastern Australian city of Brisbane last year. His mother, from Myanmar's persecuted Rohingya minority, was transfered there from a detention center on the Pacific state of Nauru because of health concerns. .. more .. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=107321628
Thais Vote on New Constitution That Could Dilute Democracy
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS AUG. 7, 2016, 12:21 A.M. E.D.T.
BANGKOK — Thais voted Sunday in a referendum on a new constitution that critics say is tailor-made for the military government to stay in control for several years and entrench a new, quasi-democratic system that gives vast powers to appointed officials.
The junta, which came to power in a May 2014 coup and ordered the constitution rewritten, says the new version will usher in a new era of clean politics and stable democracy in a country chronically short of both in recent years. Over the years, Thailand has sometimes slid into violent internal political conflict.
Still, the government of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, a retired army general, used its sweeping powers to ban political rallies, independent campaigns against the draft constitution and virtually no debates on it. Opponents say this was done to ensure that people would have little knowledge about the constitution's provisions, even though officials say 1 million copies have been distributed to the public in a nation of 64 million people.
More than 100 people who tried to campaign against the referendum on social media have been thrown in jail, and open criticism has been made punishable by up to 10 years in prison.
"If people cannot speak their minds freely or take part in political activities without fear, how can they meaningfully engage in this referendum," said Josef Benedict, Amnesty International's deputy director for Southeast Asia and the Pacific.
At a polling booth in Bangkok where Prayuth voted, officials displayed an empty ballot box to reporters and sealed it before letting the first voter — a young woman — enter the booth. She first registered at a desk and signed a paper before casting her ballot.
"Come out (to vote) because today is important for the future of the country. This is your duty and this is part of democracy, of an internationally-recognized process," Prayuth told reporters after voting.
People are being asked to check "yes" or "no" for the constitution and related provisions on the ballot paper. Final results are expected late Sunday.
The main criticism of the draft constitution includes at least five-year transition to civilian rule and a 250-member appointed Senate that includes the commanders of the army and other security services. A deadlock in the 500-member elected lower house could trigger a selection of a prime minister who is not an elected member of parliament. Under the abolished 2007 constitution, half the Senate was elected, and the prime minister had to come from the lower house.
Also, emergency decrees enacted by the junta without any parliamentary consent remain valid. So-called independent bodies, stacked with conservative appointees, would hold "disproportionately broad and unchecked powers" over elected politicians, said the international human rights consortium FIDH and the Union for Civil Liberty in Thailand.
"If you say 'yes' to the constitution, it means you agree with the content of the constitution ... what makes matters worse is you also give legitimacy to the coup, to the coup makers," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, an associate professor at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies of Kyoto University in Japan.
Pavin, a Thai and a vocal critic of the junta, told The Associated Press that a victory in the referendum would give the junta the reason to tell the world "don't you dare criticize us anymore because we have the legitimacy."
Even if Thais vote "no," the military will remain in control for the foreseeable future. Prayuth has promised to hold elections next year, without elaborating on how that would happen if voters reject the draft constitution.
Thailand has endured 13 successful military coups and 11 attempted takeovers since it replaced an absolute monarchy with a constitutional one in 1932. If passed, this would be Thailand's 20th constitution.
Leaders of the latest coup say sometimes violent political conflict made the country ungovernable and that military rule was necessary to bring stability. Junta set up hand-picked committees to draft a charter that would enshrine its declared goal of reforming politics by eliminating corruption.
But others believe the draft constitution has a different aim: to weaken allies of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the central figure who has roiled Thai politics.
Thaksin's political machine has easily won every national election since 2001, relying on the support of working-class and rural voters who benefited from his populist policies. Leading the other side is Thailand's traditional ruling class and royalists unnerved by Thaksin's political support, especially as it contemplates its future. King Bhumibol Adulyadej, whose righteous rule has anchored the kingdom since 1946, is 88 and ailing.
The army ousted Thaksin in a 2006 coup, after his "yellow shirt" critics took to the streets and accused him of abuse of power, corruption and disrespecting the king. He has lived abroad since 2008 to avoid prison for a corruption conviction that he says was politically motivated. The 2014 coup ousted his sister Yingluck Shinawatra, who was elected prime minister in 2011, but buffeted by protests sparked by legislation that would have pardoned Thaksin.
"Today is a very important day for Thailand because this is the way of democracy, so make sure people understand the content and then share your opinion," Yingluck told reporters after casting her vote, which she had previously said would be against the draft.
Those who brought Thaksin down now seek to weaken major political parties, which would ensure that real power stays in the hands of what is dubbed the permanent bureaucracy: the military, the courts and other unelected guardians of the conservative bloc.
Analysts say the new constitution would make it easy to disband parties, keep politicians in line, impeach politicians, and enforce a coalition government of weaker, smaller parties.
Chaturon Chaisang, who served in the Cabinets of both Thaksin and Yingluck, told the AP that his biggest objection is that "the draft charter will not allow Thai people to determine the future of this country." ___
Associated Press journalists Grant Peck, Jerry Harmer, Tassanee Vejpongsa and Penny Wang in Bangkok and Ken Moritsugu in Tokyo contributed to this report.
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