Tsy would presumably still be entitled to their 10% after the A3 went into affect, even if the 3rd were overturned. iOW, they wouldn't give all dividends back since 2012, just those in excess of 10%. That would be a good result.
Where'd you get $40B a year for Fannie earnings? I'd really like to see that happen, :-) but no reputable analyst is currently anywhere near that number for sustained earnings. Not Bove or the folks at Pershing.
You should read Ackman's Sohn presentation which I think will answer your questions. It's a good overview for anyone Long the GSE's.
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