Replies to post #92280 on Coffee Sipping Big Board Stocks

[EZ2]

Fed minutes show focus on exit without decisions

MARKETWATCH 2:04 PM ET 05/21/14


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve officials examined "several approaches" for the eventual tightening of monetary policy but made no decisions on which tools to use, according to the minutes from the April meeting released Wednesday that suggested that the time for higher interest rates is drawing closer.

Fed officials emphasized the need for flexibility because of the unprecedented large size of the central bank's balance sheet.

Economists have long thought that a discussion of the exit strategy was overdue. The last time the Fed laid out its thinking on rate hikes was in July 2011.

But by making no decisions, the Fed is also keeping the market guessing and possibly distracted from the key issue of when the "lift off" might occur.

"One great advantage of extending the debate about 'how' to tighten is that it keeps the question of 'when' stuck in background. If the Fed laid out a detailed exit strategy as early as, say, the June [fed policy] meeting, it might be difficult to prevent the market from pricing in a premature rate hike," said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, in a note to clients before the release.

William Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, touched on the subjects discussed in a speech in New York on Tuesday.

Dudley said outright sales of MBS are no longer contemplated, and that the Fed shouldn't stop reinvesting payments of principal before rates are lifted as had been the plan in July 2011. In fact, he suggested the Fed may want to lift interest rates before stopping the reinvestment.

Minutes from the April 29-30 meeting showed that officials were looking past the weak first-quarter gross domestic product report and seeing an economy picking up in steam.

There was another lengthy debate among officials over how much slack remains in the labor market.

Many Fed officials thought that inflation was at least stabilizing and "most" thought the price level would gradually rise toward to the central bank's 2% target.

Only a minority of Fed officials was worried about downside risks to growth and the risk of low inflation.

By a unanimous vote, the Fed on April 30 voted to continue to taper the asset-purchase program, otherwise known as QE3, by an additional $10 billion. This brought the total monthly purchases down to $45 billion.The central bank made little changes to the language in the statement.

More news on MarketWatch:

Lew discusses China and upcoming S&ED talks

Charles Plosser thinks there's a ticking time bomb at Fed

-Greg Robb; 415-439-6400; [e-mail]

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[EZ2]

Rate Puzzle Confronts Fed

MARKETWATCH 5:32 AM ET 06/16/14


When Federal Reserve officials gather for their policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, the most challenging question won't be where to push interest rates in the next few days, weeks or even months. It will be where rates belong years into the future.

Fed policy makers have traditionally believed their benchmark short-term interest rate, called the federal-funds rate, should be around 4% in a perfectly balanced economy, meaning one in which inflation is stable at 2% and unemployment is comfortably low around 5.5%.

Officials are now debating whether interest rates will need to remain below that 4% threshold long after those markers are reached.

Here is how the central banks in four major advanced economies have moved two key levers of monetary policy in recent years, and how two important economic indicators have responded. View the interactive.

-Jon Hilsenrath; 415-439-6400; [e-mail]

This matters today because the answer partly reflects their view of how rapidly the economy can grow; faster growth tends to go hand-in-hand with higher inflation-adjusted interest rates. Lowering their sights on interest rates for the long run would be in part an acknowledgment of diminished growth expectations for the economy, in essence a vote of no confidence. It also could put downward pressure on borrowing costs right now.

Several factors are driving this discussion. One is the subpar recovery. The economy has expanded at an average annual rate of just 2.2% since the recovery started five years ago, below the post-World War II average of 3.5% that preceded the recession and consistently below the Fed's own forecasts. Unemployment was 6.3% in May, and inflation has been running below the Fed's 2% target for two years. Fed officials have kept short-term rates near zero since late 2008 to try to encourage stronger growth.

Last November, former Obama administration economic adviser Lawrence Summers posited that the U.S. might have entered a period of "secular stagnation," slow growth driven by tepid increases in the size of the workforce and smaller productivity gains.

Mr. Summers, in an email exchange, said a broader set of factors will hold down rates in the years ahead. Around the world, households (especially wealthy ones and older ones), businesses and governments are saving more, piling resources into bonds and driving down interest rates in the process.

"I suspect unless circumstances change fed funds rates may well average less than 3[%] over the next decade," Mr. Summers said. That in turn means continuing risks of financial bubbles, he added, as investors flock to other assets like stocks or real estate in search of higher returns, sometimes funded by cheap debt.

Fed officials seemed to be moving in the same direction on the rate outlook in March, when they noted in their policy statement that they expected rates to stay below 4% even after inflation and unemployment returned to more normal levels in the years ahead.

But they left much unsaid, most notably whether they considered this downward drift in rates to be temporary or permanent.

Their implication early on was that it was temporary. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and other officials have said the economy still faces headwinds from the financial crisis, such as banks reluctant to lend, which will tend to keep interest rates low.

They suggested that once these headwinds recede, rates can go back toward their long-run averages. But more recently, some Fed officials have acknowledged the possibility of a lingering weight on rates.

A 4% fed funds rate would be "much too high in the current economic environment in which headwinds persist, and somewhat too high even when these headwinds fully dissipate," New York Fed President William Dudley said in a speech last month.

The Fed's official forecast for the longer-run outlook for rates shows a slight downward movement.

Two years ago, just two officials said they expected the fed funds rate in the long run to be below 4%. By March, the number of officials with that view had risen to six, even though the average projection remained 4%.

The Fed's expectation for long-run U.S. economic growth has drifted down more notably. In 2009, officials expected the economy to grow 2.65% annually in the long run on average. By March that had dropped to 2.25%.

"They seem to have this really gloomy growth outlook, but it doesn't show through to rates," said Jonathan Wright, a Johns Hopkins University professor and former Fed adviser. He said the Fed should be revising down the long-run rate outlook to be more consistent with its diminished growth outlook.

After their meeting concludes Wednesday, Fed officials will release their updated projections for interest rates, growth, inflation and unemployment, and also are likely to trim their bond-buying program by an additional $10 billion a month.

Given recent improvements in the job market, the interest-rate outlook in the near term might tick ever so slightly up. In the long run, however, it is coming down at a glacial pace, a trend that looks likely to continue.

Write to Jon Hilsenrath at [e-mail]

-Jon Hilsenrath; 415-439-6400; [e-mail]

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[EZ2]

Yellen, future tightening in spotlight as U.S. Fed meets


REUTERS 2:34 PM ET 06/17/14
By Jonathan Spicer

(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to chop another $10 billion from its monthly bond purchases at a meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday but make few, if any, other concrete policy moves.

Given the lack of drama, all eyes will be focused on whether officials tip their hand on longer-term plans for interest rates.

Policymakers, including new Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, will release updated projections for the economy and for when they think rates should finally rise from near zero. They could also surprise investors with more detail on how they plan to eventually shrink the U.S. central bank's swollen balance sheet.

The policy-making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kicked off its meeting Tuesday at 10 a.m. Eastern (1400 GMT) with a special discussion on the mechanics of how to raise rates when the time comes, jointly with the Fed's Board of Governors.

Here are the key things to watch in the policy statement and economic projections, which will be released on Wednesday at 2 p.m. (1800 GMT), and in a news conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen that will start a half hour later:


* Is the Fed more upbeat on employment and inflation?

The economy has bounced back from a tough winter. More than 200,000 jobs were added in each of the last four months, lifting U.S. employment to its pre-recession peak; inflation has firmed slightly though it's still well below the Fed's 2-percent goal.

With unemployment now at 6.3 percent, officials will likely lower their estimates of the jobless rate for this year and next from March expectations of 6.1-6.3 percent and 5.6-5.9 percent, respectively. They could also nudge up their 2014 inflation forecasts from about 1.5 percent, while cutting their GDP forecast to take into account a dismal first quarter.

Taken together, the forecast shifts would suggest the time for a rate hike is moving closer.


* Where are rates seen in 2015 and the years ahead?

The individual policymakers' expectations, known as the "dots" charts, will reveal whether they still see rates rising in 2015 and hitting 1 percent, on average, by year's end.

Perhaps more intriguing is whether they continue to lower views on where the federal funds rate should settle in the longer-term. In March, the median expectation for the neutral federal funds rate was still 4 percent, but policymakers' dots have recently been edging lower, suggesting rates will not rise as sharply in the years ahead.

The addition to the FOMC of Fischer, who is seen as a dove, as well as new Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, seen as a pragmatist, could diminish the influence of hawkish officials anxious to tighten policy. Lael Brainard was sworn in as a Fed governor on Monday - too late to submit forecasts.


* Does Yellen show her hand?

In her first news conference as chair in March, Yellen knocked the wind out of financial markets when she said the Fed could raise rates about six months after the asset purchases end in the fall. This week, investors will listen for any fresh hints on the rate-hike path.

Yellen has emphasized lingering problems of high long-term unemployment and too many part-time workers. But if she also stresses the need to regain some policy flexibility with a small rate rise, financial markets could respond.

She could also weigh in on when the Fed should halt reinvestments on maturing assets to let its balance sheet start to shrink.


* Any wildcards?

The Fed's measured reductions in bond-buying sets it up to announce the end of the program in either October or December; it could telegraph the end date this week.

Longer term, the central bank could formally redefine its strategy for returning to a normal policy stance and shrinking its nearly $4.5 trillion balance sheet. The principles were last published exactly three years ago but have grown stale.

Another long shot is an announcement that the Fed has formally adopted a tool now being tested, called an overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility, that could help it drain reserves from financial firms when the time comes to raise rates. The repo tool was likely a focus of the Tuesday morning meeting on medium-term monetary policy.


(Reporting by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Meredith Mazzilli)

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[EZ2]

I'm YELLEN @ U !!

http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2014/06/17/5-things-five-things-to-watch-for-at-the-fed-meeting-wednesday/?mod=djem10point

[EZ2]

Stock futures little changed ahead of Fed statement


REUTERS 8:00 AM ET 06/18/14
By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday, after a three-day winning streak for the S&P 500 index and ahead of a monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve.

The Fed is widely expected to announce another $10 billion cut to its monthly bond purchases as it wraps up a two-day policy meeting at 2:00 p.m. (1800 GMT), but is likely to make few, if any, other concrete policy moves. Investors will be attuned to whether officials may tip their hand on longer-term plans for interest rates.

The benchmark S&P index has risen 0.6 percent over the last three days, as investors largely shrugged off mounting tensions in Iraq amid a flurry of merger and acquisition activity and better-than-anticipated manufacturing data.

S&P 500 e-mini futures were up 0.75 points and fair value - a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract - indicated a slightly higher open. Dow Jones industrial average e-mini futures rose 6 points and Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures added 6.75 points.

Adobe Systems jumped 9.4 percent to $73.90 in premarket trading after the maker of Photoshop and Acrobat software reported better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue.

FedEx Corp rose 3 percent to $144.50 in premarket trading after the package delivery company posted fourth-quarter earnings.

Endocyte Inc plunged 19 percent to $6.25 before the opening bell after the company said a Merck subsidiary would no longer pursue development of Endocyte's cancer drug, vintafolide.

Enteromedics Inc surged 23.7 percent to $1.88 in premarket after the company said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Advisory Committee has recommended its obesity treatment therapy.

European stock markets edged up to within reach of multi-year highs reached last week, with insurer Aegon rallying after announcing a share buyback program. [.EU]

Japan's Nikkei share average rose to a 1 1/2-week high on Wednesday, as the yen weakened on strong U.S. consumer price data, although most Asian share markets were on the defensive. [.T]


(Editing by Bernadette Baum)

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[capgain]

Here's a good quote about the top from another site. JMO...

Have to agree. What I noticed in 2000 & 2007 was we never knew when the top was in long term until the 50 crossed the 200 with a prior price cross of the 200 before the 50 cross. The key to both tops was waiting to Short or go to cash until a bounce after the two MA's crossed. A true dead cat bounce. In each case the following months were much lower. We are far from this point. In fact, even if today started a decline, in both those cases, price went below the 200 and then rallied and can even make a new high. The 200 is at 1820 and the 50 is at 1902. My guess we need to drop below the 200 by 30 to 50 pts before a rally to set up a major top. This is likely to happen again as it is typical of topping action. We always see wild swings up and down near a top. But I would not expect a big time long term bearish signal to come until the 50 crosses the 200 and then Short the bounce near the 200. For now though, buy those big dips when they come even if only for a short ride up. That's my 2 cents!

[capgain]

**D*A** Not FOMC, but Yellen speech this WED.

Wall St eyes this week on Yellen, jobs

A speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and American jobs reports will provide key focus during a holiday-shortened week on Wall Street.

US markets are closed on Friday for the July 4th Independence Day holiday.

On Wednesday Yellen is scheduled to talk at the International Monetary Fund in Washington and investors will scrutinise her speech for clues about the timing of an interest rate increase following last week's comments by St Louis Fed chief James Bullard.

Bullard, while not a current voting member of the Fed's policy-making committee, rattled markets when said he expected the US central bank to lift rates by the end of the first quarter of 2015 as the economy gathers pace.

While the world's biggest economy is in recovery mode, it continues to hit speed bumps. Separate reports last week showed that American GDP contracted at a 2.9 per cent annualised rate in the first quarter, while consumer spending increased less than expected in May.

Citigroup last week downgraded its year-end forecast for the yield on the US 10-year note by 40 basis points, to 2.95 per cent, from 3.35 per cent, because of the slow growth.

"The data have been very disappointing - 2014 should have been a breakout year for growth with consensus estimates close to 3 per cent for the year," strategists Amitabh Arora and Kevin Shapiro wrote in a report, Bloomberg News reported.

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6 per cent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gave up 0.1 per cent. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 0.7 per cent.

Importantly, investors will eye the government's monthly jobs data, due Thursday, which is expected to show the American economy added 215,000 jobs in June, while the jobless rate held at a six-year low of 6.3 per cent. Bullard pointed to the labour market as a sign of the economy's strength.

In other jobs news, the ADP employment report is due Wednesday, while weekly jobless claims are also due on Thursday.

"Prices have finally achieved a certain valuation level that has become increasingly uncomfortable for market participants in the absence of further decisive evidence that the economy is on the right track," Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia, told Reuters.

So far this year, the S&P 500 has added 7.2 per cent, closing on Friday at 1,960.96. A recent Reuters poll showed market participants expect the index to hit 2,000 for the first time before the year ends.

Other data due in the coming days include the Chicago PMI, pending home sales index, and Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, due today; PMI and ISM manufacturing indices, and construction spending, due Tuesday; factory orders, due Wednesday; and international trade, PMI services index, and ISM non-manufacturing index, due on Thursday.

Today, San Francisco Fed President John Williams is scheduled to speak at a banking conference in Sun Valley, Idaho.

On Tuesday, a report is expected to show that China's official manufacturing PMI gained in June, adding to recent signs that the government efforts to help accelerate the pace of growth in the world's second-largest economy are beginning to pay off.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 shed 1.8 per cent last week, while the FTSE 100 Index dropped 1 per cent.

The latest data in the coming days include euro-zone CPI, due today; euro-zone unemployment as well as the region's manufacturing, due Tuesday; euro-zone producer prices, due Wednesday; euro-zone retail sales, due Thursday; and Germany factory orders, due on Friday.

The European Central Bank's policy members will meet on Thursday, although the bank is not expected to announce any new measures to bolster the region's growth.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11284472

[EZ2]

TREASURIES-Bond prices slip on prospects of hawkish Yellen comments

REUTERS 3:52 PM ET 07/14/14

* Traders anticipate hawkish Yellen stance Tuesday

* Concerns ease over Portugal's top bank

* Traders eye June retail sales data (Updates prices, adds comments)

By Sam Forgione

NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries prices edged lower on Monday on expectations that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen could take a less accommodative stance on interest rates in a congressional testimony on Tuesday.

Yellen, who will go before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday to deliver the latest report to Congress on monetary policy, could take a hawkish stance on raising interest rates in response to strong June jobs data, analysts and investors said.

"The data is definitely stronger and getting more indicative that we're going to move closer to that rising rate cycle," said George Rusnak, managing director of global fixed income for Wells Fargo Private Bank in Princeton, New Jersey. "If you start seeing any signs that they're acknowledging that in the Fed, you could see rates tick up here a little bit."

Yellen is also set to speak before a House committee on Wednesday. The Fed chief delivers testimony on monetary policy twice a year to Senate and House committees.

Private-sector jobs and nonfarm payrolls growth in June beat expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to a near six-year low of 6.1 percent. Traders are watching the Fed closely for signs of when the central bank will raise rates, which will hurt bond prices.

Analysts said the installment of a new chief executive at Portugal's top bank, Banco Espirito Santo, and a statement that the bank's main shareholder had sold a 4.99 percent stake eased concerns of potentially destabilizing losses at the bank.

"Banco Espirito Santo will have to get its house in order," said Justin Hoogendoorn, fixed income strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago. "The story is still unfolding, but the immediate actions certainly calm fears for the day."

Analysts said June U.S. retail sales data, due early Tuesday, could boost expectations for better second-quarter U.S. economic growth. Economists expect retail sales to have grown 0.6 percent, up from 0.3 percent in May, according to a Reuters poll.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes were last down 6/32 in price to yield 2.54 percent, from a yield of 2.52 percent late Friday. U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds were last down 11/32 to yield 3.36 percent, from a yield of 3.34 percent late Friday.

Comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi had little effect on Treasuries prices. Draghi, addressing a European Parliament committee in Strasbourg, reiterated that the ECB would maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation and could use unconventional instruments to counter low inflation.

The Fed bought $1.133 billion in Treasuries maturing August 2039- August 2043 on Monday as part of its ongoing asset purchases, which had little impact on Treasuries prices.

On Wall Street, U.S. stocks rose, with better than expected earnings from Citigroup and more deals in the healthcare space lifting the Dow Jones industrial average to a new intraday high.

(Reporting by Sam Forgione; Editing by Meredith Mazzilli and Chizu NOmiyama)

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[EZ2]

Yellen: Rate move may come sooner if labor market keeps surprising

MARKETWATCH 10:05 AM ET 07/15/14

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve will have to hike interest rates sooner and higher than expected if the labor market continues to improve more quickly than anticipated by the Fed, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee. She did stress that time has not yet arrived, and conversely, if the economic performance is disappointing, then rates will be more accommodative than currently expected. Yellen said that " significant slack" remains in the labor market and that most Fed officials project inflation will remain below the Fed's 2% target this year. "Although the economy continues to improve, the recovery is not yet complete," Yellen said. She stressed, as she has since the spring, that "considerable uncertainty" surrounds the outlook.

-Greg Robb; 415-439-6400; [e-mail]

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[EZ2]

U.S. stocks open lower; Yellen's favorite jobs number next

MARKETWATCH 9:38 AM ET 08/12/14

Symbol Last Price Change
KATE 41.36 +2.49 (+6.41%)
FLO 18.95down -1.06 (-5.3%)
TSLA 257.22 -2.1 (-0.81%)
AAPL 96.5551down +0.5651 (+0.59%)
QUOTES AS OF 09:38:49 AM ET 08/12/2014

By Anora Mahmudova and Carla Mozee, MarketWatch

Kate Spade (KATE), Intercept shares jump

-Anora Mahmudova; 415-439-6400; [e-mail]

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks opened lower Tuesday as investor optimism sagged amid tension between Ukraine and Russia and lingering concerns about sectarian wars in the Middle East.

Investors are waiting for a monthly report on job openings for clues to the pace of economic recovery in the U.S.

The S&P 500 (SPX) opened 3.5 points, or 0.2%, lower at 1,933.45. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost 30.31 points, or 0.2%, to 16,542.08 at the open. The Nasdaq Composite (RIXF) began the day down 6.5 points, or 0.1%, at 4,395.36.

Geopolitical news took a center stage on Tuesday, undermining the optimism among global investors. Haven assets, such as U.S. Treasurys and gold were higher, while equities suffered.

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalated after Russian sent a convoy carrying aid for eastern Ukraine on Tuesday. Kiev said it would not allow the vehicles to cross onto its territory, claiming the convoy was carrying military gear in the guise of aid.

Meanwhile, clashes between ISIS and Kurdish forces continued.

In economic news, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its June job openings and labor turnover survey, or JOLTS, at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen often cites the survey when she assesses the state of the labor market.

Details will include the number of workers who were hired, fired or laid off, or who quit their jobs, in June. JOLTS data for May showed monthly job openings hit 4.6 million, compared with 4.3 million when the recession started at the end of 2007.

The National Federation of Independent Business's gauge of small businesses, released early Tuesday, showed sentiment edged higher in July. Small businesses account for the bulk of U.S. employment.

Stocks rose Monday, led by small-cap stocks, in what was described as a relief rally after the selloff over the past two weeks. Equities have been under pressure on concerns the Fed will raise interest rates sooner rather than later as well as on broader worries about a trade war between Russia and the West. The Russell 2000 (RUT), an index of small-cap companies, closed up 0.9%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) ended 0.3% higher.

Stocks in focus

Shares of Kate Spade(KATE) soared 9% Tuesday, putting them on track to open at the highest level seen since April 2007, after the handbags and accessories maker reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit and sales.

Shares of Intercept Pharmaceutical (ICPT) leapt 49%, after the company late Monday issued positive data about an experimental treatment for liver disease.

Flowers Foods (FLO) shares (FLO) stumbled 6.1% after disappointing quarterly results and yearly forecast from the bakery goods company, whose brands include Nature's Own.

Tesla Motors (TSLA) was off 0.1%. Consumer Reports magazine said its long-term ownership of the Tesla Model S electric car has been mostly positive, but there have been several reliability problems with the car, echoing a similar result from Edmunds.com.

Apple (AAPL) shares (AAPL) edged up 0.3%, following a Bloomberg report that production of new iPad models has begun. (Read more about the day's notable movers here: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-kate-spade-are-tuesdays-stocks-to- watch-2014-08-12.)

German stocks stumble, gold rises

Elsewhere, Germany's DAX 30 index fell after key ZEW economic-sentiment figures came in sharply lower than anticipated. Those expectations "were understandably low, given the data over the last few months and the deteriorating trade relationship between Europe and Russia," said Craig Erlam, market analyst at Alpari UK, in emailed comments.

Oil futures (CLU4) fell nearly $1 a barrel, turning lower after the International Energy Agency said world oil demand will rise less than previously thought this year. The IEA also said there's ample supply of oil for the market.

Gold futures (GCZ4) gained $4.6 an ounce. Asian markets were mixed, with Japan's Nikkei Average up 0.2%.

More must-reads from MarketWatch:

Morgan Stanley: There's a 'lack of a bear case' for stocks

Robin Williams -- A look back at his life, in pictures

German economy gets the summer flu

-Anora Mahmudova; 415-439-6400; [e-mail]

Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires


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[EZ2]

Yellen Says Job Market Improving but Noncommittal About Policy Effect


DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 10:01 AM ET 08/22/14
By Jon Hilsenrath and Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo.--Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen pointed to an improving U.S. job market, but was noncommittal about how this progress would affect monetary policy in a speech before global central bankers at an economic symposium here.

"The economy has made considerable progress in recovering from the largest and most sustained loss of employment in the United States since the Great Depression," she said remarks prepared for delivery Friday here. "These developments are encouraging, but it speaks to the depth of the damage that, five years after the end of the recession, the labor market has yet to fully recover."

Ms. Yellen stuck to an equivocal line she used in July in testimony to Congress. If the job market continues to improve more rapidly than expected or inflation rises quickly to the Fed's 2% goal, the Fed could raise rates sooner than expected. But if progress stalls, low rates will persist.

She delivers her comments amid a deepening debate at the U.S. central bank about when to start raising short-term interest rates from near zero, where they have been since December 2008. Many Fed officials don't expect to move rates until mid-2015, but a falling jobless rate and other indicators of improving job markets has led some officials to press for earlier moves.

Labor indicators "have improved more rapidly than the (Fed) had anticipated," Ms. Yellen acknowledged. However her comments made clear that she isn't ready to move, in part because she is grappling for answers to questions about puzzling labor markets scrambled by the 2008 financial crisis.

"There is no simple recipe for appropriate policy in this context," Ms. Yellen said. "Monetary policy ultimately must be conducted in a pragmatic manner that relies not on any particular indicator or model, but instead reflects an ongoing assessment of a wide range of information in the context of our ever-evolving understanding of the economy."

Judging the degree of slack in the economy is particularly hard right now, she argued, because of shifts in labor force participation, part-time employment, the demographics of the workforce, wage growth and broader measures of labor market dynamism. "A considerable body of research suggests that the behavior of these and other labor market variables has changed since the Great Recession," she said, complicating her decisions.

Write to Jon Hilsenrath at [e-mail] and Pedro Nicolaci da Costa at [e-mail]


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-22-141001ET
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

[EZ2]

Hedge Fund Profits From Short Bets on Yellen -- Market Talk

DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 10:59 AM ET 08/22/14


10:59 EDT - Investors and traders who bet Yellen to disappoint scored today. Jason Evans, co-founder of hedge fund NineAlpha Capital, tells WSJ he held shorts in 2- and 5-year notes leading into the speech. He calls the bets a "small win," and that the speech wasn't a gamechanger to bring forward the timing for the first rate increase. The speech was " balanced. The Fed is still likely to move sometime in the middle of next year, but they keep open the 'if the data changes' option." The 10-year note is down 7/32, yielding 2.434%. ([e-mail]; @minzengwsj)


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-22-141059ET
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[EZ2]

Yellen Still a Multimillionaire, Records Show

DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 4:11 PM ET 08/28/14


Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and her husband owned at least $4.6 million in assets last year, according to documents released Thursday by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics.

Fed officials' asset holdings are disclosed in ranges, so their total wealth can only be estimated. In 2013, Ms. Yellen and her husband, Nobel-winning economist and University of California, Berkeley professor George Akerlof, held assets worth $4.6 million to $11.6 million. The year before, their holdings were worth $4.8 million to $13.2 million.

Ms. Yellen has made unemployment a key focus of Fed policy, saying the central bank will keep its benchmark short- term interest rate near zero until officials see solid improvement in the labor market. With the unemployment rate falling quickly, to 6.2% in July, policy makers are increasingly debating when to start raising rates. Most Fed officials have indicated they expect to make their first rate increase sometime next year.

Many of Ms. Yellen and Mr. Akerlof's investments are in University of California-linked retirement plans. But they also hold interests in private companies, including Raytheon Co., Pfizer Inc. and Home Depot Inc. Their shares of each company were worth $1,001 to $15,000, the documents showed.

Ms. Yellen held on to her stamp collection, which is worth between $50,001 and $100,000.

Write to Pedro Nicolaci da Costa at [e-mail]


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-28-141611ET
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL News Alert

Fed Minutes: Officials More Concerned About Weak Overseas Growth, Strong Dollar

Federal Reserve officials have become more concerned about weak growth overseas and the impact of a strengthening U.S. dollar on the domestic economy, according to minutes of the Fed's September policy meeting released Wednesday.

Officials worried at the Sept. 16-17 policy meeting that disappointing growth in Europe, Japan and China could crimp U.S. exports. Meantime, the stronger currency, by reducing the cost of imported goods and services, could hold U.S. inflation below the Fed's 2% objective. Fed staff also reduced its projection for medium-run growth in part because of these concerns.

The collective worry is added reason for the Fed to hold short-term interest rates near zero, even as the economy improves.

See More Coverage »

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TREASURIES-Yields rise as traders eye Fed announcement

REUTERS 10:23 AM ET 10/29/14

* Volumes light ahead of Fed policy statement

* Approaching Treasury auctions dull dealings

* Equities boosted by optimism over Fed

By Michael Connor

NEW YORK, Oct 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries yields rose on Wednesday as wary traders nudged down prices ahead of a Federal Reserve policy statement that investors hope will signal low U.S. interest rates for the foreseeable future.

Volumes in U.S. debt were light, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note down 6/32 in price and yielding 2.305 percent in early New York dealings.

"Everyone's being a little bit cautious," said Natan Magid, strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York. "We are not seeing much in the way of volumes or any kind of price action."

In addition to potentially market-moving comments from the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee due on Wednesday, traders were also treading lightly because of the approaching end of October and auctions this week of new Treasury debt.

"We have a lot of supply coming up and people are cautious about taking too much risk on their balance sheets," Magid said.

The yield on the 30-year bond last stood at 3.0846 percent on a price decline of 16/32. It had yielded as much as 3.086 percent in earlier trading.

"Activity so far is off 40 percent from normal, roughly the pattern established in total volumes on Monday and Tuesday," FTN Financial strategist Jim Vogel said. "In these light flows, the dominant pre-FOMC theme appears to be defensive ..."

Later on Wednesday, the FOMC is widely expected to announce it will end its two-year-old stimulus program known as QE3 for the third round of quantitative easing. The Fed started buying bonds as far back as late 2008 to battle the recession.

"We don't really expect any kind of change to the language, with maybe a little bit of increase in uncertainty (because of) the dollar's strength," Magid said. "We don't expect that to take them off course but they might be a little conservative about changing their language."

The MSCI world equity index was up 0.50 percent on Wednesday. U.S. stock prices also rose. Wall Street price were also generally up in early trading. (Reporting by Michael Connor in New York; Editing by James Dalgleish)

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