Replies to post #25328 on Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)

[value1008]

I've been in touch with Paul Resnik the past few days. A really nice guy and a veteran analyst and longtime seasoned expert on the ethanol sector. (Read his Uncommon Equities initiating coverage report for PEIX in Jan. 2013-- it's got some great sections rebutting the oil industry propaganda myths against ethanol. Link at: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/7184251-uncommon-equities/1487041-uncommon-equities-initiates-on-pacific-ethanol-peix-with-buy-rating-1-9-13)

He tells me his rough estimates for 2014 EPS of 2.76 for PEIX are based on full share-dilution, no change to the fair-value adjustments on warrants, and also a 20% tax rate (probably on the low side, he surmises).

IMO, that's a much more realistic scenario-- albeit he and we all know there are so many moving parameters to skew things-- than what the Sidoti analyst has posted for some of the financial sites for PEIX: 4.15 EPS for 2014.

Now, slap a P/E of just 12 on an EPS of 2.76 and you get a $33 s/p.