Paulness - do you even understand what you are saying?
A $3 to $5 stock price in a few years equates to:
$3 or $5 x 600M shares = $1.8B to $3.0B Market Cap
Are you serious with this? 600M shares is a conservative estimate to. They will most likely need another 60M+ shares from a private placement just like the one they did in 18+ months. Those of you who say - "Oh, Dr. Chan said we have enough cash, etc". Let me explain something to you, and the true long term investors in this stock will agree with me - Dr. Chan is INFAMOUS for pushing back timelines and not meeting publicly stated deadlines!!!
I will tell you know what we believe, in our personal opinion, what is going to happen and what we think is happening currently behind the scenes. You can take this opinion with a grain of salt or you can give warrant to the fact that us unwinding a 4+ year position that has been shown to the public in this message board should hold a little (lol) weight.
CTSO could not get the clinical data they need from the application of Sepsis. They did 2 trials - 1 in the EU and 1 dosing study. Both showed inconclusive results that Cytosorb had no statistical significant effect on 28 day mortality and reduction of days in ICU. This is not an opinion - this is a fact and the company has published the results of the EU trial and then said dosing study results were similiar.
CTSO has now moved to cardiac surgery which they have stated. The reason being is they believe approval for this application is less risky and will more likely get approved. The data for this is 100% unproven so far. They were extremely confident Sepsis was the "sure thing" application for Cytosorb and clearly it was anything but that. FDA approval via a PMA is a rigorous process. I am unsure if CTSO has the avaiable resources OR experience to get the trial done in a timely fashion. When I say timely fashion I mean soon enough where they do not run out of cash and need to do another private placement which will further diluted the stock another 15-25% AND create another invisible wall at X Price. Similar to the $0.25 wall I have stated and has been tested and CONFIRMED to the nearest $0.0001 3x in a row.
In penny stock land the name of the game is to keep the company running as long as possible so the personel within the company can continue to collect their nice salaries and stock options. Dilution for them is part of the game. The $10M they recieved earlier this year keeps their familes fed and their pockets full. However, I will say CTSO is 100% better than most penny stock companies on the OTCBB. I do believe they are legit - I just don't think they are going to get this done within the next 3 years or less.
What I think is going to happen is sales will stagnate around $500K on a quarterly basis. I predict Q2 2014 is going to end up with between $300-$500K. For a product they are claiming to be the SOC someday - this is unacceptable and proving the point that the medical community clearly does not see the product as the SOC and they need HARD CLINICAL DATA to support the purchase of the product. I believe the initial sales we have seen relate to KOL's and other doctors at hospitals who are INTERESTED IN THE TECHNOLOGY and wanted to give it a shot.
When sales stop growing and taper off and we get no news for FDA clinical trail - you can bet the stock will fall HARD and I don't even think it will take a lot of volume. People just won't want to buy the stock until they start seeing an uptrend in sales OR anticipation that FDA trial is coming to an end fast and results are expected to be reported.
The CTSO pipeline is SHOT. Don't expect any serious R&D to be put into any of the products like HemoDefend, etc. CTSO cannot even get Cytosorb, their flagship product, to produce clinical data supporting its benefit. They are focusing on Cytosorb (which I agree is the right move for the company at this point in time).
Think about this from our point of view. We have been in this stock for 4+ years. We were suppose to have ROBUST clinical data 3 years ago. It is going on 5 years and we have next to nothing. Cytosorb reduces Cytokines by 50% or so. Wow. This doesn't really mean a thing because we don't know if reduction in Cytokines saves human lives or not. The correlation is not known at this time. Also, Dr. Chan has made SO MANY PROMISES IN THE LAST 4+ YEARS. Next to NONE of them have been kept and deadlines/timeslines are constantly being pushed back. The stock is diluting at a rate of 145K shares per day and they are burning through cash quickly. There is 40M shares that I believe have no problem in selling at the first glimpse of a run-up. This will hold the stock down for YEARS GUYS!!!!
Anyway, these are the reasons why we are getting rid of next to everything (if thats possible). You all have to remember. There is a reason the stock is $0.23 and not $3. The difference between $0.23 and $3 is a ton of speculation and "what if's".
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