Thank you. and Yes. The ichimoku cloud is VERY intriguing. It is also VERY difficult to learn, but if you go on youtube and study some videos and read my IBOX on the board, you can have a better understanding of how I am able to predict chart movement. Created by the Japanese, the ichimoku cloud is said to be one of the most accurate chart indicators of all time, and works well with the Japanese candlesticks.
For proof of how I was able to predict the downward motion with the ichimoku cloud, examine my post here. look how I was able to predict the stocks movement April 11th, 17th. I know my charts are not perfect, but they do predict the general direction most of the time.
I understand I also make some contradicting post: AKA: "To The MOON!!!" type post, but sometimes I get excited. And I hope people arent mad at me for that. And also I play the chart on a day to day basis. I get in and out of stocks at a rapid pace, and everyone here trades differently so it's not right for me to tell people when to buy or sell. But I felt like my April 17th post was the most important in reading the ichimoku cloud and predicting the increased volatility. So I was able to predict that the stock would start to have resistance one month in advance b/c Today is May 17th.
"Traditionally. When the Tenkan san collides with the price like this. IT MEANS THAT.. there is resistance, and the stock will be very choppy for a while. Notice how it did that last time. (where i circled in green.) when the tenkan san collided with the price. "
Now. I did believe that WNTR was going to break out on Q1 financials. What I did not expect, was for the CEO to dump shares so hard on that day and the days prior to Q1. That is the reason the stock chart looks so ugly now. I started to notice that NITE was holding the stock down on this day here, and I warned people to protect their capital.
May 6th, I changed my tone, because I noticed that our triangle wasn't working. So I decided to take a break from trading WNTR on May 6th. I felt like WNTR should have broke out on May 6th, but something was holding it back. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=101637749
Now we know that NITE was indeed diluting because the float was updated on May 15th. Float 356,027,490 a/o May 15, 2014
So not only is WNTR working against NITE dumping, but also people are aware that BMAK shows up on occasion to sell shares as well. So that is not good. What I also think is ugly is that the Q1's showed how many shares were issued. In the Quarter 1 filing you can see how the CEO is paying off the debt:
In the period ending December 31, 2013, The company subsequently issued 186,500,000 common shares for cash at $0.001. In the period ending March 31, 2014, the Company issued 60,000,000 shares for cash and 45,000,000 shares for services.
BUT. I don't like those numbers in the filing. 186 million shares at .001? that's only $186,000 dollars. and it doesnt say how much the 60 million were issued for, which also bothers me. but if those were issued for .001 also, then it seems like there is only 246 million shares converted towards the debt. Which would also equate to 246,000 dollars.
The debt was priced at 995,000 dollars. Which leaves alot of dollar amount left to be covered. BUT. I would say the average price of the debt conversions was around .004. SO. if you take 246million shares and times it by .004, then that would indeed be enough to pay off this debt. But I don't know if that's how this works. Did Frank only get 186,000 in cash, or does it matter at what price they sold the shares? WNTR has never traded at .001 , the lowest it ever went was .0014. I don't know if he gets the total cash from the sell of all those shares or only 186,000 dollars. That is what has me stumped.
You see with trading this stock I think timing is everything. Knowing when to protect your capital and when to sell for profits is clutch. I was a long at one point, but I was able to spot the end of the uptrend so I became a trader after that.
Frank told the shareholders that the debt was "Substantially completed to the best of his knowledge." So in my opinion this meant that the debt was close to being completed. Since that statement, another 40 million shares were added to the float.
So yes. This was expected. But how they sold into financials was really ugly. Financials are supposed to make your shareholders confident. I think the chart was set up to run perfectly on May 5th, and also on May 14th, but the dilution stopped the chart from breaking out on both days.
Which brings us to the current situation of the chart:
American bulls is FAR FROM ACCURATE though. I never rely on them for my buy and sell signals. Instead I use the 5 day moving average combined with candlestick analysis as witnessed here:
When the price gets above the 5 day moving average, it is usually a BUY signal, and when the price falls below the 5 day moving average, it is usually a sell signal. I do not like to tell people when to buy or sell because I could be wrong and someone may miss a target. This 5 day moving average technique is strictly for day trading daily charts.
Current Technical Analysis Ichimoku:
I am showing a current support level at .0056/57/58 area, as shown by this light green colored triangle labeled as: Current Support. If WNTR can stay above that trendline then it will be fine for next week. But lets examine further...
We know dilution hit recently. We also know that alot of traders jumped in on Thursday expecting to make a quick buck, and they got crushed. So Those traders will probably exit on any sign of weakness as they have not done their DD on this stock and do not care to hold through the storm.
I am showing a second line of support at the .0048/49/50 area as shown by the light blue line I have labeled: 1st support.
Since WNTR closed at .0059, and the current situation with NITE holding the stock back, I would say in my opinion that a test of this first support line at .0048/49/50 area will be a very likely scenario.
There is also going to be Major support at .004 area and the bottom trend line as labeled 2nd support.
Even though WNTR is not trading perfectly the way we would like to see... I don't see any reason to panic. You have the right Idea to sell high .005's and buy high .004's because you can get 20% more shares. BUT, what if you sell on Monday and then Tuesday he announces a closed LOI or some huge PR? That is the risk you take by making that move. You should have been protecting your capital in the .007's but I understand this is not easy to make that call when the stock is on the verge of a major breakout. Here is my first chart. Look below for a further Ichimoku breakdown.
Further Ichimoku Analysis:
The price has closed below the KIJUN SEN, which is telling me that the underlying averages of WNTR are pushing the stock down. You can see how the first week of MAY the stock was closing above the KIJUN SEN, and this was bullish. However, the dumping on the day of financials has caused the price to begin to close below the Kijun Sen.
The Chikou Span Green line, which is a 26 day lagging indicator of the last closing price, is our buy and sell signal. You see how in Late February the Chikou Span shot up WAY ABOVE the price candles? That was a buy signal. If the Chikou span dips sharply below the price that would be a sell signal. However I do not believe it will do that. I think it will move down just a little bit, then bounce back up. I could be wrong so be careful.
The cloud is showing future resistance in the .0059-.0088 area. I suspect that in the middle of JUNE, the price will be testing that cloud area. I have drawn my prediction below this chart as to a possible scenario. The key to the ichimoku cloud, is being able to predict when the price will break through the cloud, and when the Chikou Span will break above the price. I cannot tell you what to do with your flipping. But I can tell you that WNTR will probably run big again at some point so If you feel comfortable flipping in and out, then go for it. Also if you think the DD is strong and the stock will recover, then either way you play it , you will be ok. No matter what just try to keep a low average. That's how I have was successful with this stock. My first buy was at .009 in Sept 2013, I had to average down for months, buying all the way down at .0017. WNTR is very volatile, and anything could happen. It is a very fun, but also very dangerous stock. And I hope the dilution ends soon and we can all see this company grow to become a Nasdaq Hedge fund. But only time will tell my friend. Good luck.
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