Replies to post #47951 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Chuck703VA]

DowDeva, to be or not to be...that is the question.

You asked.. So is this move down "A" of an ABC? Or is it impulsive? And how would you know the difference? .

The answer might depend on whether we just had a top or just an intermediate high. Which was it? What I am saying is that you ask a tough question.

It appears to be a motive/impulsive wave to me at this point. It's in the direction of the larger wave down that we are beginning so to speak. If that larger wave down turns out to be corrective to the even larger wave up we have been experiencing then this wave is probably part or all of wave A of an ABC corrective wave down. On the other hand, if this larger wave down turns out to be a change in overall trend it could be something else.

I don't know the difference yet. Although we sometimes act and speak like we "know" what is happening from our count/interpretation of the waves, they are really not predictive for sure. The only real prediction that seems to be true for me, is that if I express my opinion of what I think is happening and the actions I am taking because of that interpretation then I predict that you might do better to take the opposite position on average.

I am interested to read Tech's response. I better shut up before my paranoia takes over. I also want it noted that this post does not mention anything about an E_.

[techcharter]

DowDiva,

Looking at the daily chart I would call the sell-off from last week's top impulsive. The intraday and futures charts both show a 5 wave move, with no overlap of waves 1 and 5; however, wave 5 is disproportionately large.

I still have a bullish alternate count. SPX and INDU are in wave 4b of an ending diagonal. This idea is supported by looking at the German DAX market, which is of similar importance as the Industrials in the US. For the bullish count to be eliminate, the INDU would have to break below 16120, and the SPX below 1820. This does not change my count for the DAX.

Either way, (wave 1 down of crash VS wave a of wave 4 ending diagonal) the past 2 sessions have been a choppy advance to fibonacci levels, so short term should be down the next couple of days.