- 28nm LP products started rolling out in Q1'12 (such as Snapdragon S4), and phones hit the shelves around Q2 of that year - 28nm HPM products started rolling out in Q1'13 (such as Snapdragon 800), and phones hit the shelves around Q2 of that year - The only 20nm product I have heard mentioned in Q1'14 is a Qualcomm modem aimed for automotive - not something they intend to roll out for the broad market (and who knows when it will hit the shelves) - The Snapdragon 810 is the first 20nm SOC from Qualcomm, aimed for Q1'15 (will probably hit the shelves in Q2 of that year)
So it looks like 20nm took ~3 years... and I too am skeptical that we'll see a 16nm FinFET based SOC by Q4 of that year. Maybe Q4 of 2016....