> i encourage you to build a comprehensive trading system based
> on that premise and backtest it.
>
> the results may surprise you.
well, as i've said, over the last two years, its performed well *for me*. if you randomly stick a pin in the chart of kopn or pmcs or rfmd or klic over the last year and assume you shorted there, you'd pretty much be far ahead at this time. with a little smarts in easing into a position, easing out of a position, and hedging the wiggles, my profit has been over 400% (since august 01). on the other hand, its been as high as 550% (roughly october and march of this year). so its plausible that things are not the same any longer ... but for that timeframe, it *could* be made into a valid strategy ....