Re: Do you have any idea in terms of tens of percentages of Intel performance increase compared to competition?
Have you seen the Anandtech review? I think that's probably going to be an accurate comparison of cores introduced later in the year, at least as far as the desktop and mobile markets. Figure that AMD will have a performance boost with socket AM2 that wasn't included in the Anandtech article, but Conroe will probably also have some fine tuning by that time, optimized drivers, plus of course the Extreme Edition bin, which will add another 10% to best-of-breed scoring. All in all, I expect Intel to be ~20% ahead of AMD in performance with the launch of Conroe, and I expect them to hold that lead through mid-2007 when AMD launches G-step. After that, it's all speculation, dependent on how Intel executes with 45nm vs. AMD with their core enhancements.
In servers, I think AMD will have a stronger showing, as the integrated memory controller will have slightly better scaling in multithreaded server apps. But even so, I expect Woodcrest to be generally ahead of AMD's 90nm offerings, and at near parity with their 65nm offerings (where I think AMD will push clock speed and quad core at the expense of power). As far as performance per watt, Intel is going to be slightly penalized by FB-DIMM power, but I expect Woodcrest and Clovertown CPUs to dissipate less than the top-bin Opterons, so it will generally even out. Make no mistake, the server market is a rat race, and it's where each company has the most to lose. Subsequently, it will be the place where Intel and AMD will have their strongest marketing efforts. I don't see how Intel can prevent AMD from holding ~15% of the server market, but they should prevent any growth beyond that.