Replies to post #25013 on Alto Ingredients Inc (ALTO)

[kel3]

The Word Is the EPA is believing a Study that says US Gasoline Consumption will be Higher than Originally thought when they
made the ruling in November.The Study says to remain at a 10%
Ethanol Level they would need to Increase from 13 Billion gal.
to 13.7 Billion gallons.

It Looks Like the EPA will Increase back to almost last years
mandate level of 13.8 Billion gallons, but not to the
14.4 Billion gallons Originally Mandated for 2014
http://t.co/k1uh7zPZiP

They are now Expecting a 0.7 or 0.8 Billion gallon Increase
from the Lowered amount.

- (700 million gallons must be A Lot,if 1B Exports is Huge)

The Informa analysis was commissioned by the Renewable Fuels Association and Iowa Corn Promotion Board. It will be used to support the groups’ comments to EPA on its proposed rule for 2014 RFS blending requirements.

http://www.ethanolrfa.org/news/entry/informa-statutory-2014-rfs-levels-can-be-met-through-e85-e15-rins/ …

The study takes a closer look at likely consumption, finding that ethanol consumption in 2014 could be at least 13.7 billion gallons, compared to the EPA’s assumption of 13.0 billion gallons. It points toward E85 as a major contributor, stating, “E85 accounts for most of the potential for expanded consumption.” And continues, “The increase could be even larger if E85 is priced at a sustained discount to gasoline (on an energy-equivalent basis), as the consumer response could be stronger than implied by historical data, since discounts have been transitory in the past.”

[tpappa]

I know you asked Kel but I'll pipe in. In the last CC, Neil insinuated that the word on the street about the EPA is that their decision will be more favorable. Also, since the last EPA decision, Putin happened. Whether stated or not, the EPA will come out with a more favorable mandate because of Putin's aggression. Putin reminded us why energy diversification is important.

[kel3]

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/203619-petroleum-group-says-epa-may-backtrack-on-renewable-fuel-mandate …

Petroleum group says EPA may flip-flop on ethanol mandate
By Laura Barron-Lopez - 04/15/14 05:56 PM EDT

A top petroleum group is worried the Environmental Protection Agency will flip on the proposed levels it released late last year for the amount of ethanol and other biofuels refiners must blend into the nation's fuel supply.

The EPA proposed its draft 2014 blending volumes under the federal Renewable Fuel Standard in November to cheers from oil companies, which called it a move in the right direction.

But the agency could go back on that proposal, said President of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) Charles Drevna, which wouldn't bode well for the oil industry.
"Recently Gina McCarthy has been remarking that the volumetric requirements for the finalized [Renewable Fuel Standard] may be different than the proposed rule," Drevna said to reporters on Tuesday.

He added that the administrator has made such comments to agricultural organizations, such as corn ethanol groups, which would benefit from an increase in blending volumes. McCarthy and other EPA officials have visited states like North Dakota and Iowa since the new proposal came out to take comments before finalizing the rule.

Drevna said the EPA is thinking about increasing the volumes because the Energy Department's stat shop estimates there will be an increase in gasoline demand in the next year.

The AFPM, along with the oil industry, wants the proposal to stay as is. Opponents of the rule want to see the renewable fuel mandate repealed all together, but that's not likely to happen during an election year, let alone with a divided Congress.

"Administrator McCarthy keeps talking about the administration's goal and her commitment to incentivize innovation," Drevna said. "What the hell does that mean? Does that mean continually picking winners and losers? Does that mean listening to the advanced biofuels producers people to just be patient with us?"

The EPA's current proposal requires 15.21 billion gallons be blended in 2014, down from 16.55 billion gallons in 2013. The proposal cut the amount of blending volumes for refiners for the first time since 2007, when the standards were expanded.

If the EPA decides to return to 2013 levels or set a higher marker, it will anger petroleum and oil companies but once again be on the good side of biofuel producers.

Ethanol and other biofuel producers argued that the 2014 proposal put the nation's renewable energy policy in the hands of oil companies, killing innovation and evolution in motor vehicles.

Drevna said the AFPM recognizes the agency is under a good deal of political pressure, but is troubled by recent comments.

"One of the things that's the most disconcerting is I heard an EPA official say that the comments they were getting in favor of adjusting the proposal upward so outweighed the comments to keep the proposal at the lower levels," Drevna said, adding that the quantity of comments shouldn't be a factor.