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Replies to #13 on HomeBuilders
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Joe Stocks

05/16/03 12:15 PM

#14 RE: reflexivity #13

In a way, I guess I am. I own a little hardware store in Atlanta. Probably the best one in the metro area as far as growth and y-o-y for a mature store. Opened my first store the same year, same month that HD opened there first one in Atlanta. It was momentus battle for market share the first several years but eventually me and HD decided to carve out our own markets and call a truce.gggg Back in the late 80's I owned a lumberyard that sold to builders if that counts. I have an urban store so I sell very little to builders. However, much of much industry follows the builder trends.

Anyway, I look for industries that I think that have been oversold and beaten up and also those industries that no more lipstick can be applied. I then hope to take trade in the eventual rise or fall. I just did very well trading the power producers long and I think it is about time for the builders to fall. These ever lower interest rates will keep them proped somewhat but wait until rates rise. that will kill them.