I don't consider low volume take downs to be as significant as large volume take downs.
Today was interesting. No volume until the MMs tested twice at $3.95 and saw some volume flow in from sells.
Not long after It went up briefly then dropped.
This red day offers a pretty nice reset on the last 3 green days that we've had (on the daily indicators)
Off hand, I personally do not believe this will drop much more. I could see a drop monday morning 2-8 cents in the red (gap down most likely) then, a gap fill and potentially ending at or above start of day.
Then again, they may just drop it again monday and Tuesday everything might rocket with the bill being delayed. The exact timing is impossible to say, so obviously this is guess work.
I do have a suspicion though that the DAY OF the event next Tuesday, we will end green rather than red. I personally do not see a close under $3.45 again, ever. That being said, Ackman added an additional wager / stake on the common's price tag at the level $3.53.
I really doubt we will go under this though it is true that FNMA dropped and touched $2.41 after ackman announced his $2.70 position stake.
Be well, I have cash ready for a drop if it happens.
-Zargis