Replies to post #148 on exp system

[WinLoseOrDraw]

i forget the notional value of the positions LTCM had to unwind, but in the end the fiasco only cost (iirc) 1.2 billion. which is a lot for me and (presumably) you, but for the markets is nothing.

not ignoring your question re: position size, just having trouble putting my thoughts into one coherent paragraph. if i had to summarize it in one sentence, it would be that all the blowups i looked at had a common trait: very large positions. LTCM, livermore, niederhoffer, beacon, etc etc etc, all had very large bets on instruments that were (maybe) in theory separate but in practice were all but identical.

so i'll invert the original statement and say: if you've blown up, you almost certainly had a large one-way bet.

shaping up to be a dull day...may as well take a nap...