Excellent point on modems v.s. apps processors, although I don't know how many of Intel's chips fall under the contra-revenue scheme.
Doing a quick sanity check on that though, we saw $156M in the quarter. Let's assume that Intel sold...oh...5 million tablet chips all w/o contra-revenue + 3 million smartphone apps processors.
That's maybe 8 million units at let's call it $5-10/piece? Lower bound of that suggests domination by modems still (however anemic the #'s are) and the upper bound suggests a rough 50/50 split.
re: Exynos 5430, I will believe that when I see it. Samsung just announced Exynos 5422 and variants, so I would expect that to show up in any overseas Galaxy 5 long before I would expect a 20nm part when Samsung's yields supposedly are in the toilet and with Samsung still supposedly vying for 2nd source @ Apple for iPhone 6.