Replies to post #2528 on Canopy Growth Corp (WEED)

[HeedTheChief]

I disagree, marijuana is still an illegal substance in Canada,
and that will be their advantage in ultimately instituting there
commercial growing agenda.
Sorry!

This is just biding time to allow Canada's twelve commercial
growers to build up enough supply.
Otherwise, their framework would be doomed from the beginning.
By the summer/fall the injunction will be removed!

[ALL IN2]

Why can't it be profitable if they brand it?

[Chefboy69]

you sound like a former MMAR patient

lol there are tons of threads and forums online about people like yourself who are against the new MMPR BUT

BIG BUSINESS IS HERE

and can't be stopped

so go play your tiny violin somewhere else

[TMEvans]

I am curious - while I know it is cheaper to grow your own, can you really provide yourself the variety, consistency, and quality control that a larger scale producer will be able to? Maybe there is no point in asking, as you seem to have your mind made up already that 'business is bad', and 'individuals are good', but there are some positives to this model. I think you will see the quality and varieties available being far broader than your current experience, and while perhaps more costly, the prices will come down in time.

Not sure why you think one would accept 'crap' under the new model, and quite frankly, personally, I'd rather order on line and have it shipped to me discretely than go to a storefront, but then perhaps I'm antisocial.

Regardless, yours is a valid viewpoint, and if you can avoid the strident judgemental tone, I for one would like to hear more of your perspective.

I share some of the other posters' views that in time the injunction will be lifted, and the new rules will apply to all, but maybe I'm not being objective enough. Though the argument that one should be able to produce their own medicines I suspect will fall flat... after all, I'm not allowed to grow poppies, and make my own morphine, right? Heck, it's illegal to produce ones own spirits, even though it's ok to produce beer and wine for personal consumption (and, while I'm rambling off on this tangent, even though its legal, what proportion of consumers do you think choose to do so? in the long run, I would think that a majority of marijuana consumers will also choose the convenience of purchasing it from a reliable, reputable, professional commercial producer)

[Green2013]

LOL. The injunction is just a way to gain time until the license producers are able to meet demand. Health Canada will have to regulate just a few licensed commercial producers instead of the 400,000 individual patient estimated by HC. That way they will be able to tax this companies, create a new industry with thousands of new jobs (TWEED is creating 100 jobs along and its just starting) and reduced the illegalities. Its happening wether you like it or not silly, and guess who is and will be at the head of this billion + industry. Thats right. TWEED$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[TMEvans]

I can't help myself...

I have to ask what you mean by 'this is not Colorado or Washington'? No, this is Canada where we have a population base almost 3 times the size of Washington and Colorado combined... that strikes me as positive... and only one legal framework to work within, vs 3 (Federal and two different states!)

Still, can you tell us more about the advantages of growing your own, while that is still a legal alternative? Is it something you do indoors? what does it add to your electricity bill? does the smell ever become an issue? (I toured a LP operation, and I was impressed at the strength of the odour (fragrance?!?)... while pleasant enough in the context, I imagine it could become a bit much in some environments, and might not be for everyone.

[PennyStockInvestor]

Market potential impressive, but TWD is currently overvalued

I broke down the current market in canada for medical marijuana>>>

40 000 legal users

assuming they use 1.5 oz a month (liberal estimate) they would consume as a whole 720 000 oz a year.

@ 7$ a gram = the entire market value $141 120 000 a year.

this is the total value of the legal marijuana market in Canada, 141 million dollars.

my issue>>>

here is my problem with the industry and Tweed's stock price.

they have 150 000 sq feet of space.

lets assume that they only utilize half of that for flowering. that's 75 000 sq feet for flowering.

they can take off crops every 8 weeks/ six times a year.

a good grow op should yield 1-2 oz per square foot.

lets say they yield 1.5 oz per square foot 6 times a year, that's a reasonable estimate.

that means with 75 000 sq feet would yield 675 000 oz a year.

(75 000 sq feet x 1.5 oz per square foot x 6 times a year)

that means that tweed alone could fill the of need for basically all 40 000 licensed patients in canada, as the market demand = 750 000 oz a year.

and this is only utilizing half their space!

Supply will far out pace demand. this concerns me, and should concern other prudent investors.

I should point out, we already know there are currently 11 other licensed commercial growers in Canada (not publically traded) and furthermore, those 40 000 patients will retain their right to grow according to supreme court ruling.

___________________________________

here is my reasonable, but still liberal valuation for tweed.

lets say they capture 25% of the market (huge yes, but possible)

that means they will possibly service 10 000 patients a year that use average of 1.5 oz. a month and pay 7$ a gram.

10 000 patients x 18 oz a year (1.5 oz x 12 months) = 180 000 oz a year needed.

180 000 oz a year X 28 grams x $7 a gram = $35 280 000 revenue for tweed.

lets say over head is high @ 25%, profit =$26 460 000

but, the companies market cap is over 100 million already!!!

thats 4 times the projected value of their yearly earnings already!!!

and that my friends is still a very liberal estimate.

the reason i say supply is already outpacing demand, tweed is already advertising 5$ a gram, so there goes another approx 30% of their assumed profit mentioned above.

I used 7$ a gram.

how do others feel about the math???

please, tell me if you think i'mwrong and explain yourselves.

I think i'm relatively close here.

I personally would be a buyer of Tweed at about 60- 80 cents per share.

[Darius Demian]

Hey Awesome! It's not too late. Seriously. I respect your tenacity but not the lies you have been speaking since Day 1.

This is a reply to your first post on this board from April 2014. Safe to say you were wrong. This has not been "a bad investment". I don't know if Canopy is in "Nowhere" yet but I do know they are in Germany, Australia, Brazil, Spain, Denmark, Jamaica, and Chile with plans to go to 29 more in the near future.