Replies to post #7691 on North American Palladium Ltd. (fka PALDF)

[Roo5guy]

Palladium likes to elevator down, its daily movements are irrelevant though, $Pal doesn't trade with PALLADIUM spot prices, obviously

[Leirum]

It is not only Palladium - the whole sector even oil is down. Reason: The Chinese came out with some figures which Point to a slow-down in the Money-supply and of course as well a lower GDP as projected.

With ref. to PAL:
It is the first time since this Company actually started production, that in 2014 they can Show a nice Profit. Why:

The production costs will be closer to $ 450/470 and the average Palladium Price is closer to $ 700.-- plus. This leaves a very lucrative Gap of $ 250 / $ 300.--

In the past PAL had recovery costs closer to $ 570.-- and average hedge-prices of: From 2002 t0 2007: $ 400.-- and from 2008 to present: 500 - 600. It has been very obvious, that PAL could not make any Profit as Long recovery costs are above $ 500.-- and Palladium would stabilize clearly in a range of $ 600 - 800.--
This only started to happen closer to 2012.

I frankly never understood why People paid such high Prices for this Company, when the deficit was written on the Wall. But now, when a Turnaround is written on the Wall as well, they sell out. When I entered PAL the stock was $ 0.60 with averaging down I am in around $ 0.40.
Why: The financing gives PAL the necessary liquidity for extending the shafts, increase the production and lower the costs on one Hand, but then we have a PAL Price which is substantially above the production costs, which means, PAL could sell Forward today a 2 years production and smile with excellent earnings and this is exactly what we gonna see in 2014 and in the years to come. The Dilution of course has taken it's tool as it always does, but the Dilution is already priced in with a very sharp Discount, although the Dilution in effect will only take place if the CV is converted and the Warrants executed but then one should as well see the positive element: Debt's gone as converted into Capital.
Personally I expect, once the 1th quarter is out some analysts will Change their forecast and once the 2nd quarter is out, they will Change it again but then the stock as far as I am concerned will be higher that the present Price.