I doubt it.
If they can pull out 160k oz this year, that's about 13,000oz/month
13,000 oz x $1,200 = 15,600,000 in monthly revenue.
Their cash cost of production is $700/oz, so money left over to pay bills after paying to have the gold extracted is 13,000 x $500 = $6,500,000
They also have $4 million cash on BS and $31m in bullion in inventory.
With their current liabilities at $127 million (that includes current portion of long term debt), that is about $10,600,000 per month in liabilities owed. (Timing of payments, amounts, when principal paid down all differ loan to loan, so this is purely back of the envelope numbers).
Roughly speaking, they owe $10.6M a month, they're bringing in after costs of production $6.5M a month. They have $35M in current assets that should be pretty liquid and mgmt said they are cutting capex by $128M this year, which is about $10M a month. I hope this cut they spoke of was addressed immediately, as in January 1st, i.e., 4 months ago.
It's going to be tight, that's for sure. This is the reason Banro is not budging. People want to see if they can pull this off. This is a full blown rat race of money coming in vs. money going out. This is all cause for concern, however I'm sure Gramercy or another institution would be more than willing to do another round of preferreds to help with the short term liquidity crunch if shit was about to hit the fan.
Keep in mind, those revenue numbers are based on $1,200 spot, which is about $90 lower than current price.
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