Replies to post #16692 on World Surveillance Group Inc (fka WSGI)

[bernoulli]

Congratulations GTE holders, it looks as though you were right and I missed it, I hope, for your sake, the GTE shares triple in value Monday, you all deserve the upside pop, I've been impressed with your dedication to GTE. Once again Congratulations.

[justfrank]

I added a paralell downtrend line to the weekly chart if anyone was curious where they can up with the bolded part in this statement

Meaning, there's a one in five chance the company actually gets the cash. I consider the upside to be $6 if they get the cash and $1.50 if they don't. Calculating a basic statistical value of probabilities gets you a 'fair value' of $2.40.

Not sure about the fair value but looks like they took 20% of the difference and subtracted it from the upper line of the symetricl triangle

I do think they have their probability reversed though more like 80/20 that GTE gets the cash maybe higher. In that case the fair value according to that assumption fair value would be $6.35 by added the percent of the difference to the lower line of the triangle.

[pitbull74]

funny how we were at fair value over a year ago also and w/o russia or strats -pit

[lowtrade]

andtheretheygo
Thanks for the blog link, This guy seems to be calling for exactly what I've been saying for the short term and both just & I for the longer high end!

Like the info about covering a short position at the American and how a pro shorter reacts.

I would like to comment about this statement, because he seems to stress the money is coming from a different entity;

"The announcement hinted at the financing for the transaction coming not from Internafta but from "several tier one European Banks".

As I recall, Internafta reported having their funds in several banks ready for transferr. I may be wrong, but I remember reading something about that.


From blog post;

What't next? With the company essentially admitting that the deal is being funded by a consortium of banks, I think the odds that this is legit goes up to something like 20/80. Meaning, there's a one in five chance the company actually gets the cash. I consider the upside to be $6 if they get the cash and $1.50 if they don't. Calculating a basic statistical value of probabilities gets you a 'fair value' of $2.40.

Now I know my analysis isn't written in stone or pulled from the pages of some security analysis textbook. Rather, its born from years of trading, investing, and sometimes shorting small- and micro-cap stocks. Instinct is something you acquire, not something you're taught.

So my analysis leads me to conclude the stock should wander aimlessly down between now and the middle of next week, when it will again be tick tock time.



My call is still $2.45/50 bottom, before PR.