In the spirit of sharing I called some of my contacts in Korea to learn some more about the current bird flu outbreak. Having spent over 20 years in the ag space and a fair amount of that time in Asia, I thought I would see if I could get some on the ground info.
The bird flu outbreak is not limited to chickens, but has also impacted ducks and migratory birds. It does not appear to have crossed over into other species including humans. The government seems not b concerned about human cross over at this point.
1) The first reported case of bird flu in Anseong (where ECOS was testing equipment) was in the 3rd week of January (around the 24th of January). The government placed some restrictions on the impacted farm in that area as of that date and culling of flocks and sterilization of the farm and nearby farms began.
2) In the the first couple of weeks of February a couple of additional cases were reported in Anseong with the by the 25th there being about five farms which had reported the bird flu or similar symptoms. Additional culling of flocks and sterilization was conducted in response to this event.
3) In March a couple of additional cases were reported in Anseong and the government further restricted movements within and without the province. Culling and sterilization were continued.
4) In order to control the spread of the virus the government has been culling flocks at impacted farms and those within 500-1,000 yards from the impacted farms.
5) The strain which has impacted Korea is H5N8 which while dangerous to avian populations has not in the past posed a threat to humans.
6) There are three other strains of avian flu which have impacted Southeast Asia this year primarily China and Vietnam. One of the strains which impacted China has crossed over to humans.
7) The government beleives that it is on the backside of the flu outbreak and cases have begun to drop in the last two to three weeks. However, travel restrictions to farms in impacted areas will likely continue until the end of April.
8) This is really not that unusual an event in Korea. They have had outbreaks of some form or another almost every year. In 2011 they had a fairly large outbreak (bigger and more dangerous than the current outbreak) which began in December and continued through March. In 2012 they had a mild outbreak in March which was of very limited duration.
9) Korea tends to have outbreaks of avian flu in the February/March timframe almost every year due to the migration patterns of certain birds. The virus tends to be spread by migratory birds who land on the peninsula in this time frame. It generally follows a month or so after similar outbreaks in China.
10) Three impacts have been seen in the markplace.
Chicken and duck consumption have declined by over 75% since the beginning of the outbreak (some figures have it higher). This happens in Korea every time there is an outbreak of this type. The impact in 2011 lasted for about 9 months before demand reached pre-flu levels. Koreans have a long standing pattern of switching to beef and fish for some period following an outbreak. This has already been seen in beef prices in Korea.
It is expected that chicken and duck production will not pick up until late May early June. This has been a consistent pattern after each outbreak.
Chicken and duck exports tend to decline in the 12 months following a more severe outbreak and imports of chicken tend to increase to fill the market.
