Dave, I tend to agree with you that the Case revenues for coconut water "feels" right at about $22 per case wholesale.
BUT Let's try this a different way. All of the following calculations are based on the numbers you and other posters have discovered through your contacts with the company and IR. If those numbers are wrong, the calculations below are going to be off - especially if the quantity of cans in a case is something other than 24.
If the number Jane gave for the retail price at a convenience store is correct ($2.09), then this is just over $50 retail per case (24*$2.09). They indicate (in the 10k, page 14 under Direct Store Delivery “DSD”) that convenience stores require a 25-30% gross profit on products they sell. Taking $50*70% (30% profit for convenience store) means that the wholesale price is $35. Very much in line with the $34 that the company gave you.
Let's just say that is high and the retail price is $1.79. $1.79*24=$42.96. This is inline with what Jane said the price would be at a retail store like Safeway and correlates to what John-M said the company gave him ($45) as the price for a case of coconut water - once again using 24 cans in a case.
Taking 30% off of $42.96 equals $30 per case wholesale for top line revenue. In order to get to $22 wholesale per case, the retail price would have to be about $1.29 ($1.29*24 = $30.96; $30.96*.70 = $21.76). A retail price of $1.29 seems low to me for a "premium" product. We won't really know until the next quarterly report - and even then there may have to be some dissecting of the numbers to figure out what the case revenue is.
I listened to the Roth conference again and Yates projected 500,000 cases of Coconut water sold by the end of 2014 with another 500,000 of Cabana lemonade and limeade (50% increase and 500,000 cases is what Yates said - 327,000*1.5=490,000).
If, and this is a big IF, they are able to do that, then we are looking at $5.4 Million from lemonade and limeade ($11 per case) and anywhere from $11.0 M (500,000 * $22) to $15.0M (500,000 * $30) or more for the coconut water - AND this does not even include any revenues from the reintroduction of the Pulse drinks. On the low end the company revenues would grow between 4x and 5x in 2014. Now that would be a good year!!!
I also do not want to be accused of being a pumper so if my numbers or any of my assumptions are wrong, feel free to call me out on them.
