Lisata Therapeutics Inc (LSTA)

[whirlybird]

Mathematically, there are two immediate outcomes,

these being the results of the RENEW and PreSERVE studies around July of this year. Although the two events are not completely independent of one another since PCT cells are being used in both studies, let us assume they are independent more or less since different routes of administration are being used (myocardial injections versus coronary artery infusions). Independence is also arguable because the RENEW study uses CD 34 stem cells whereas the PreSERVE study uses enhanced CD 34/CC4 stem cells. Admittedly, there would be some interdependence but it would be hard to estimate.

Let us be conservative and assume the probability of the RENEW study being positive is 60% although Dr. Turik affirmed cardiopoiesis was present in 100% of cases, and let us assume additionally that the percentage chance of the PreSERVE study being positive is 70% although the fourth monitoring committee ruled in March 2014 that the study should continue. The point is not whether or not these percentages are accurate but that when there are two future events occurring about the same time the chance of one or the other occurring is greater than the chance of just one isolated event occurring.

If events A and B are independent, the probability that either A or B occurs is: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B). Therefore, P (A or B) = .6 + .7 - (.6*.&) + 0.88 or 90% chance. Subjectively, this seems too high a probability and yet there is a very high probability that one or the other studies will be positive, and let us assume that one or the other events being positive would be strong catalysts for NBS.