Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Bearmove]

Bill Fleckenstein

Trend-Spotting vs. Market-Timing
Page 3

Pre-Emptive Pondering: As another example, last Friday I mentioned that it might be worthwhile to pay attention to SARS, not because I think any of us in America is in immediate danger of contracting the disease but because it seems as though the markets have now decided it's a nonevent. If the markets see it this way, then they have priced in a nonevent, and therefore, if anything other than a nonevent happens to occur, it could be a problem. But the fact is, SARS continues to be a problem in Asia, and it will be a problem for many companies that do a good deal of their business in Asia. That was the view from Oracle's (ORCL:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) executive vice president, Derek Williams, who said of SARS over the weekend, "This is going to have an effect all across the world, no doubt."

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