Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Zargis]

It is possible it could test $3.00 again. If it breaks, $2.68 I could see as a final test in the 2's.
Still, just because it is possible does not make it so. Though, I admit we are in an apparent downtrend on the current short scope.

EDIT: On the 5-minute, if we break above $3.55 tomorrow we might be able to break above $3.68 if there is enough volume.

Watch for $3.35 and $3.42 to BREAK on the daily.
If EITHER breaks, then the current 'possible beginning of an uptrend' (on the daily) has BROKEN.

If $3.42 breaks, then $3.35 likely will break again as well. Once it breaks all that's left between it and $3.00 are the following points:

$3.25 - the STRONGEST point due to the extreme volume and large bar on the chart (3/11/2014)

100-day SMA ($3.17 today, probably $3.18/3.19 in the next two days respectively.)

Currently, those are the most recent points that matter most.

I find that in addition to indicators, the best way to see if a drop or rise is coming, is to look at the trends on the bottom and top of the charts.

Long term it is good, but allow me to show a picture of the current chart I see. (of course this is opinionated - AND while I am long and trade, overall bullish, I TRY to see negatives first and foremost.)



Per the current trend lines (see image below on the 60-minute time frame)

Tomorrow, we must travel above the lower (yellow trend) or if it breaks, we will likely see a decent red day. (this is in addition to the daily information I mentioned previously.)
Morning:
Watch for $3.49 break by 10:30am ET, $3.50 break by 11:30am ET, $3.51 break by 12:30am ET.





5-Minute Chart Notes: A Break below $3.47 again is what will likely have us testing $3.42-$3.44 area again. (the crucial point being $3.42)

Moving below $3.50 will likely incur a re-test of $3.47. (hence, CHAIN reaction!)





LIST OF TRADES OVER 100,000 TODAY:(x12 - only x5 over $3.50, x4 were AT $3.50)






For ease of use - CSV format for those who wish to copy the information.

Time & Sales,,,,,,
FNMA,,,,,,
3/24/2014,,,,,,
Hours: Market,,,,,,
Price: All,,,,,,
Exch: All,,,,,,
Size: >= 100000,,,,,,
03/24/2014 04:58:48 PM ET,,,,,,
,,,,,,
Time,Last Price,Last Size,Bid Price,Bid Size,Ask Price,Ask Size
14:52:14 ET,3.52,167038,3.51,11300,3.53,6200
13:10:05 ET,3.49,100000,3.49,1087,3.49,7800
13:09:44 ET,3.5,120000,3.49,1087,3.5,130900
13:07:54 ET,3.5,100000,3.49,15333,3.5,200
13:07:45 ET,3.5,100000,3.5,3250,3.51,30400
13:07:43 ET,3.5,100000,3.5,11050,3.51,30400
11:09:53 ET,3.51,150000,3.51,60616,3.52,37740
10:09:18 ET,3.585,103919,3.55,300,3.55,1800
09:58:25 ET,3.5931,208525,3.56,9500,3.57,13688
09:52:47 ET,3.5559,120124,3.53,10000,3.54,14100
09:48:32 ET,3.4751,126400,3.5,7800,3.51,15400
09:42:48 ET,3.4909,107008,3.45,10800,3.46,300



Please note - while I anticipate this going down tomorrow, I am 'hoping' for such a move to add to my share count. So, I am slighted for such a move.

If we do not break below $3.42 tomorrow, I would not only expect Green but also - this 'potential uptrend' to continue.

Be safe, and be well. I hope this helps someone.

-Z


-Trade note of the day: LOSS

I was an idiot today and sold on the lower side, though everything in me said 'don't do it' i.e. $3.46, re-bought back in at $3.51 when I couldn't watch it longer due to work. This is a prime example of what GREED can do to your trades. I was greedy - hoping it would drop and touch $3.35 but it did not and I was not able to catch the ride up until $3.51.

While I am bullish, I observe the negatives first and - always try to get 'more'. However, my willpower today was weak.