Friday, March 21, 2014 10:38:35 PM
Vodka Industry - Supplier Revenues in the United States
http://www.discus.org/assets/1/7/Vodka_2013.pdf
Brand Classification:
http://onthehouse.typepad.com/on_the_house/files/BrandClassification.pdf
Per the above link, Marani may fall under the category "Super Premium". The estimated 2014 revenue potential of "Super Premium" vodka brands is $1,266,000,000 in the United States.
If Marani were able to capture 1% of this market, they may have an estimated annual USA revenue of $12,600,000 (in just the United States alone) - at 70% expenses, and 30% profit, that could account for .27 of the share price at P/E 30, or .36 of the share price at P/E 40.
Brazil and Dominican Republic contracts are 70m over 5 years (14 million per year) - at 70% expenses, and 30% profit, that would account for .30 of the share price at P/E 30, or .40 of the share price at P/E 40.
With just the estimates above, we're at .57 - .76 per share.
Additional considerations:
- What if Marani can capture more than 1% of the United States market?
- Revenue and PPS increase from possible Europe, South Africa, and Mexico contracts?
- Wine and Brandy revenue?
- Dividends.
The PPS in 2014 might get crazy :)
Then, there's the 2015 and beyond... think about it.
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