Agree. The 10-K can only include new things from the past 3 months, ending on Dec 30, 2013. All 10-Q and 10-K are essentially back-ward looking for a 3 month period and take a few months to compile and release- so recent events aren't even in them (sometimes little updates are amended at bottom- but for the most part they cover that 3 month, past tense period). And the 10-K is sorta the grand, yr end compilation and summary of all the yr's 10-Q's rolled up into the final, end of yr last 10-Q plus a summary of the entire yr as mgt sees it.
So yes, you can't expect it to reflect instant results for some PR news event, say released, one month ago- that's too soon usually to be put in this qtr's info and make it in the 10-K covering to end of last yr.
That balance sheet analysis was only to try and show what my estimated (and I think I'm pretty close- it's not a certified CPA analysis by any means, but just a look at the numbers they put out and some simple math)- but it was to try and show what is classically known as your "burn-rate" or cold, hard cash needs.
To try and give some idea how much money, actual cash, they need as a business to show up, pay people, keep the door open and lights on, and most importantly service their debt- that's the big one to me, as it's the one that can get you shut down, put in default if you can't pay it.
As you can see- the amounts aren't trivial. Needing about $250K a month coming in for operating the biz, and maybe as much as another $50K a month to pay interest and service the debt is a sizable chunk of change- and that is what Mike (he's the guy primarily in that hot seat each month) that's the reality he has to face and juggle each month- or it's lights out.
When you look at the share outstanding increases from about the past qty-3 10-Q's, the number of shares sold off to raise cash is not out of line at all with that $250K to $300K a month number. When you figure the stock then was only about 1 penny sometimes to maybe 2 or 3 pennies and they have to offer Asher and others a discount on the shares too boot- you can see that they could easily have needed to give up 100 million shares to "pay the bills". Example: 100 million shares at say .02 (BHRT's portion say after discounting to an Asher like firm)- that would bring in 100 million x .02 per share = about $2 million dollars, which just about jives with that 9 month usage of about $250K X 9 months or about $2 million to keep everything going.
So they need cash, and they need it on a continual basis. Those ventures and deals announced are more than likely an attempt to "try" and start to stave off that cash-burn need, but IMO will take time, a fair amount of time to ramp up to generating a couple $million a yr. In the mean time, if they need to keep seeing Asher and similar, I'd expect periods where, as we saw before, the stock can get hammered pretty hard when those "big boys" decide to unload a chunk of their shares, or worse, go short on the other side of their trade- which is their "style/known tactic" to get themselves even more money. There are detailed, well written articles about Asher and the like- they are brutal dudes. They don't lend wanting to make 5% or 12% return like your bad credit car loan place. They aren't happy till they make like 25% return or more in ea deal. High risk, high return and they're very good at what they do. Why does BHRT and other companies use them then? Well, sometimes you're just in the squeeze and hurt locker for cash- so you bite the bullet and do what you gotta do while hoping your other plans pan out and work out.
I'm still concerned can they really get the FDA level trial stuff really moving. It takes a lot of money- as in a LOT. When you go back a while- BHRT seemed to have a singular, very clear message that moving to an FDA trial completion was their total end game- and obviously to anyone owning, thinking of owning the stock- that was where everyone knew the mega big return or payoff would be. My concern is, they seem to be drifting off that focus and message into a lot of different "stuff"- just my opinion. It may be that they're just tight for cash and moving a 100 plus person trial ahead is a big cash user. But not hearing about Mirror and not seeing it the primary, main focus and instead seeming to shift almost to a new, "medical tourism" or some sort of hybrid company offering "treatments" around the world- struck me as odd and a little off-message/disappointing. You look back and read for yourself- you can kinda "feel" when all the news and updates and PR seemed to shift from FDA trial, FDA trial, FDA approval to now lots of other things being talked about, batted around- which also has to take the time of the chief science officer and others away from the trial(s).
Look at the other question posted that mentions the Baxter trial- that will give an idea what they face in terms of the 10,000 lb gorilla in the room. Baxter can toss a $100 mil down a drain, this instant, and it's a rounding error on their balance sheet- and they have 60,000 plus employees to use to do whatever they want to do. That's what BHRT is up against.
So yes, the game is "tight" and they're in a competitive, tough field to play in. And that month to month or qrt to qrt cash is the lifeline. Remember- Northstar was formed and had to step in as BHRT did go into default on a key loan (I think the Bank Of America loan) - which means they came really, really close to BK. Luckily some of the insiders stepped up to the plate and must of put up some kind of collateral- my guess, their homes/businesses, personal savings, etc to guarantee and extend that loan from being "called in" and putting the lights out on BHRT. One of the 10-Q's explains it in detail- that the key loan did go default and Northstar "assumed" it- which to me, is language that they stepped in and "guaranteed it personally".
So be reasonable on the 10-K, yes. I think you will still see a fair amount of new shares have been issued, increasing the outstanding share count a lot and I wouldn't be surprised that cash would be low again and tight. All just an opinion, educated guess- but that's based on the past yr of 10-Q's and other info.
I agree- building up expectations way to high, adds to the violent price swings and can cause a big sell-off when the story doesn't come up instant roses when they put out the real details- which is always the SEC document. Good luck.
