$Bob's and Jbem's Bitchin' Bios

[stocking4ms]

DRTX, Merrill Lynch research report today,
Expecting positive dalbavancin ad com on March 31 We are raising our PO to $20 (from $14) based on an improved outlook for dalbavancin’s launch. DRTX’s 10 MSLs and ~10 regional sales directors, who have been in the field for the last year meeting with their 1,900 target hospitals, estimate that 25% are ready to treat MRSA skin infections with dalbavancin in an out-patient or ER setting. Thus we believe our assumptions of ~3% and ~5% of skin infections in 2015 and 2016 (10% and 18% of the “ready now” hospitals), are conservative.
We expect a positive dalbavancin ad com on March 31 and approval by its May 26 PDUFA date. We raised our US and ex-US probability of approval to 85% and 80%(from 80% and 75%, respectively) and adjusted our penetration and ramp, which is still significantly below the historical ramp for Cubicin. We only model dalbavancin
sales in skin infections and would see upside from other indications (bone, lung).
We maintain our Buy rating and note that the proposed one-time 1,500mg dose could add upside to our estimates. We also note that DRTX’s EV is low vs. other anti-infective companies.