Disclosure: I am long WGAS.
However, I feel that this way unrealistic.
I like to stay positive and thanks for the calculations,
but...
1. That does not factor in debt re payments (several millions)
2. That assumes no more dilution (which we've seen already)
3. That assumes reserves (which are most likely slightly overestimated, but I am more positive about this than some of the posters who would have you think all 140 are dry)
Actually great strides have been made in the field of well estimation in the past couple years.
My one professor showed me an example in which a dye is placed in the well, allowed to distribute and dilution, then a concentration sample is taken and the more dilute the dye is the more volume you have.
4. That assumes oil prices. Which actually could go either way.
5. That assumes no sale from management
Anyway all I am saying is 100 things would need to go right and 0 things go wrong.
Ah... so much negativity I'm sorry.
Why am I long this stock then?
Well, there are still a few things I like.
1. OTC QB
2. Fresh management involvement
3. Equity based deal
4. Insanely small market cap. I mean with their debt and what it looks as though they are trying to swing. The company will either put the company out of business or into the stratosphere.
5. Rough past, much negativity. This is something I actually like. Everybody bashing Volk. Typing scam this scam that. Lol, it's probably easier to be an overweight American in your basement and troll message boards than it is to run a fully transparent oil and gas exploration company I suppose. Keep that price down. Most of them are salty about ending up on the wrong end of a flip scheme. That isn't investing to me. That is gambling and there is a difference.
6. No short interest? At least I don't think there is. I wouldn't want to short this stock. What happens when a bouncy ball hits the floor anyway?
Anyways I am starting to rant, and I'm sure I will generate plenty of bashers anyway so I'll leave it at that.
Bottom line, I think it's worth a shot for the turnaround story.
Long WGAS.
"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffett
Brad PhD
