Opinions and experts abound on this topic and I am just a little private investor, so I say from the "get-go" that my strategies are just that... my views, not necessarily from any superior vantage point. That said, my experience in investing spans over 20 years at an annualized return rate of nearly 30% per year, so I have made some good calls in my time spent messing with stocks.
I have a high tolerance for risk and a healthy desire for above average rates of return, so I have historically gravitated to investments that fall somewhat in the danger zone. But I am not reckless and I do a ton of research before plunking down any cash for a position.
The potential for profitable nat gas export is virtually irrefutable. Events in Ukraine and Russia only add impetus to the phenomenon. The thing that has changed comes from two angles: the geo-political impetus and the urgency of production. The governments of Eastern Europe are quite literally begging the U.S. to ramp up production of nat gas to neutralize Russia's stranglehold on European energy needs. The fact that it is Russia "in the sights" of the end game for supplying those nations, for the first time, gives overriding credibility to the Cheniere initiative. It even neutralizes the extreme power and PAC-money influence of the Oil industry who previously faced down other alt/energy initiatives like ethanol and EV development. So... that's the good news from the geo-political theatre.
Now, for the bad news; not terrible news, but cause for strategic consideration. Liquefied nat gas is needed NOW and the very lengthy approval and permitting process is likely to be rapidly accelerated by the U.S. government. There is already a substantial backlog of well-funded ventures in this segment. That tells me that the big gains are going to go to those that get to the export terminal first, and that means CQP whose LA terminal is slated to come on-stream at the end of 2015. The LNG Corpus Christi project which is also pretty far along in development, is looking more like 2018 for initial shipments. Others will follow suit sometime near the LNG plant's completion, and beyond.
I am 100% into CQP and 0% in LNG. That will tell you where both my head and heart are at with this play.
Good luck to you!
Yank
