NeoMedia Technologies, Inc (NEOM)

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Andrew Seybold from Barcelona- See his response to the last question at the bottom.

Wireless industry expert Andrew Seybold returns to WirelessWeek.com for a live BigTalk discussion on Wednesday, February 22, at 1:00 p.m. ET, to discuss the pressing issues of the wireless revolution.

Head of the Andrew Seybold Group, a consulting firm specializing in the connected mobility space, Seybold also serves as editor-in-chief of Forbes/Andrew Seybold's Wireless Outlook. He has written several books and has contributed monthly columns to a variety of trade magazines.

Please note: BigTalk discussions are editorially moderated. Guests reserve the right to choose or decline specific questions.

Andy Seybold: Good Day to you all, the 3GSM conference was held in Barcelona last week, lots of hype, but also lots of reality too! See my commentary from this week (http://www.outlook4mobility.com/commentary2006/feb1906.htm) and there will be another one later in the week as well. The rites of Sprint, 3GSM, Cbit, and then the CTIA big show in Las Vegas, all places where the industry comes together. But this year there are/will be more content providers, content owners, applications companies, and more “Internet” companies on hand than ever before. Wireless has been “discovered” by all of these groups and the rush is on, trying to figure out how to deliver what content to whom and for how much. New technologies are coming at us faster than ever before. IMS, Mobile TV, off-network Mobile TV, new airlinks. It is sometimes hard to follow and oftentimes the smoke makes it hard to see if what is coming is real or just done with mirrors. Regardless, it is going to be a fun year! Let’s get to the questions!

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Steve Foley, Ashland Or: Hi Andy, as Sprint move to take over Nextel, what will happen with the the format and iden technology Nextel now uses, and how will this affect Nextel users? Thanks. enjoy your show.



Andy Seybold: Steve if this a show? Well perhaps, since I get to say just about anything I want here. Sprint Nextel have plans and have said publicly that they will keep iDEN until 2008 or 2010, sorry I don’t remember which, but by the time they don’t support iDEN any more the idea is that they will have their own PTT services over their EVDO network up and running across their entire network by then. iDEN is a old TDMA based technology that works well, PTT works well and Nextel delivers lots of great services including LBS services. You might think of iDEN as GSM, and CDMA and EVDO as UMTS/HSDPA, the GSM operators are installing UMTS/HDSPA and at some point will move most of their GSM customers over to UMTS/HSDPA because on a 3G network it is less expensive to deliver bits (voice of data bits). So the Nextel iDEN network is, to me, GSM, and the Sprint network is 3G so the tranistion is exactly like what Cingular is doing with GSM and UMTS except that there will only be a small number of phones that well be able to work on both networks.

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Alex, Boston MA: Andy, if you had a greenfield wireless company with plenty of PCS spectrum and wished to offer 3G voice and data services, what radio technology would you choose-GSM/UMTS/HSDPA or CDMA/EVDO?



Andy Seybold: Alex, what a great question. First of all, GSM is not a 3G technology, it is a 2G technology and the GSM community is moving to 3G using UMTS/HSPDA or what they are calling 3GSM now. So here is my answer: If you need to be able to provide world-wide coverage (roaming) then you would probably chose UMTS/HSDPA because 70% of today’s networks are GSM and moving, therefore to 3GSM. However, if you wanted the most flexibility, and the most bang for the buck, and the most flexibility then my recommendation has to be CDMA/EVDO. You stated “plenty” of PCS spectrum but what is plenty? Here are some other factors you need to consider: Handset prices will be a wash between the two technologies, they are basically today. There will be devices that will operate on GSM/3GSM/CDMA for world phone coverage. With EVDO you use only 1.25 MHz of spectrum per carrier with 3GSM you use 5 MHz per carrier. With 3GSM you mix voice and data on the same carrier—which means voice always gets priority. With CDMA/EVDO, today, you use CDMA 1X carriers for voice and EVDO for data only. In the future when VoIP and IP back-ends are being deployed the decision might be a little harder to make, however, my belief is that if I put in, say 6 EVDO carriers, assigned 2 for data and 2 for voice in each cell site then I would have 2 carriers which could be used for voice or data depending upon the demand for services in each site. There is not simple answer but I happen to believe that the migration path for CDMA/EVDO with back-ward compatibility is the smart choice for a Greenfield operator. By the way I am glad that you did not include WiMAX in your mix you obviously understand that WiMAX is not a competitor to either UMTS or CDMA

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Art Rosenberg, Santa Monica, CA: Andy, Welcome back from Barcelona! Would you care to comment on the impact that Microsoft's push into mobile devices, including "federated" presence management and IP network-based services, will have (slowly but surely) on the wireless industry and markets? Thanks!



Andy Seybold: Art, Micorosoft is, as you say, making a push into the world of wireless, new phones, new back-end tachnologies, the communications sector stuff I saw at 3GSM which is close to out Active Content is really great stuff! I suspect that Microsoft will play an increasing bigger role in the wireless space as time goes on, they have had about 5 years of mis-steps and false starts, you might remember their joint venture with Qualcomm, and Ford, and their first set of operating sytems for handhelds but I think that they are gettin getting it right this time around and I expcet to seem them play an even bigger roll as we get into the world of IMS or IP to the core.

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George, Washington, D.C.: Andy: Steve Ballmer announced a Microsoft WiFi phone at the GSM meeting. The WiFi and WiMax gangs keep talking about telephony, and now the wireless carriers are talking about cooperation with WiFi. Do we have a new wireless system on the way?



Andy Seybold: George, there are always new wireless systems on the way. And at 3GSM there was a lot of activity around wide area/WiFi voice and data handoffs, Fixed/Mobile Convergence (FMC) and VoIP. There will be some systems up and running this year, I think that there are already real trials underway. The demos I tried left a lot to be desired in the hand-off from wide area to local area and back again and this was to and from a single WiFi access point. I was not overly impressed. Further I think that there are places where this will work in the US where we have a problem in with building coverage for example but in Europe or Asia where wide area coverage is already very good I am not sure why anyone would want to do this except for capacity issues and perhaps because WiFi VoIP is cheaper? But what does it really cost to tie WiFi into a wide area network? T-Mobile in the US has done the best job so far. You cannot just use ANY WiFi hotspot, there has to be some type of connection between the hotspot and the network or the phone has to be “smart” to make the connection. It is going to happen but to me it is not a very big deal. I think the “Internet VoIP” community that is done on phone companies is pushing this hard and I keep wondering who they think provides the back-haul for all of this VoIP traffic?

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Jr Binno, Fenton MI: How do you feel with the new MVNO companies that are coming out? Also, I wanted to know your opinion on where this industyry is really going in the U.S.?



Andy Seybold: Jr-I will do the MVNO's first. We are going to have a lot of them around, ESPN, Disney, are ones that are aimed at affinity groups, that is, specific market segments that like sports or Disney content and there will be more of them. MVNO's who go are the youth market are also intereseting and one thing that do is to provide the networks who own the wireless networks with a way of not having to deal with the cost of customer acquistion. Having said that my scenerio for MNVO's is that we will have a bunch of them, some will be bought and brought into networks, some will fad away and some will emerge as strong players in the field. As to where the industry is going I believe that we are heading for a future where our wireless devices become our command and control devices for the rest of what we do and interact with. The ability to pay bills, the ability to buy content and have it displayed on our home theater, the ability to get info, the ability to have our phone "talk" ot our car when we get in, setting the seat, the mirrors, the temperature, our favorite radio station and find directions for us too. In short, I believe that most of us will come to rely on our wireless devices for things that we carry in our wallets today, things that we do in person today that we will be able to do remotely. Should be a lot of fun!

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Gideon, Israel: When do you think pure-play incumbent (non MVNO) mobile operators will be forced to offer VoIP services?



Andy Seybold: Gideon, why would they be "forced" to offer VoIP? If the networks they run on convert to VoIP which MIGHT happen sometime in the 2010 time frame they will move with the network they are on, if you mean wide area plus VoIP over WiFi, I still have a problem understanding the business model in most cases for this shift. But the VoIP industry seems to think this freight train is heading down the tracks and gathering speed, so we will see what happens. As I mentioned I was underwelmed at 3GSM with the "convergence" that I saw demonstrated there.

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Ken A., San Diego, CA: What are the best market opportunities for the non-cellular devices this year in both the wi-fi space and with broadcast mobile tv? Can you talk a bit about consumer preference for all-in-one vs. feature-focused best-of-breed mobile devices.



Andy Seybold: Ken, lets start with consumer preferences, this is a tough one and there are lots of folks who do market research (which we don't), but I beleive that a lot of people want a single device that does multiple things, there are already more camera phones sold in the US than cameras, and more on the way the ones I saw at 3GSM included some incredible resoutions, full zoom and other features. Music is already here as is video and Tv, I guess from my perspective I lean towards the all in one devices but there are purests who will want to keep their iPOD separate from their phone but I cannot hazard a guess as to what percentages will move either way, it will partly depend upon the ease of use factors, can we sell wireless devices that are don't take a rocket scientist to use? Things like the iPOD are successful because they do one thing very well (now with Video more than one thing), but at some point I think that all of these consuemr devices will need a connection to the outside world and not just a cable.

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Sue Marek, Denver, CO: Hi Andy, Mobile TV was certainly a big topic at 3GSM. Have you evaluated IP Wireless' TDtv solution? Will it be a competitor to MediaFLO and Crown Castle? Thanks.



Andy Seybold: SUe, I spent some time with the folks at IP Wireless and saw their demo, good stuff, but I guess my issue is this: In order to get receiver chips into phones there has to be a large number of potential customers, the more offerings we have competing in the market the fewer devices on each network. if you saw the forcast from Informa at 3GSM they are predicting about 130 million mobile TV viewers world wide by 2010, that is not a lot spread accross three or more competing technologies, I think it will flush out to 2 and so far my bets are with MediaFLO and DVB-H, and by the way a side by side comparision of these two technologies is really telling!

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Ron, Atlanta, GA: Andy, what do you see as the next "killer-app" from amongst the many shown at 3GSM this year?



Andy Seybold: Ron, the killer app continues to be connectivity but I can tell you that the industry believes that it will be mobile TV. I did, however see a lot of naviagation and LBS stuff that I think will be very useful for many consumer and business custoemrs alike. We are finally getting some "smart apps" for our networks. So I guess my full answer is that what the industry believes is a little different from what I believe.

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Alex, Boston MA: Andy, you mentioned in your earlier comments that "WiMAX is not a competitor to either UMTS or CDMA". Why not?



Andy Seybold: Alex, when you review WiMAX against UMTS and CDMA (mobile I am talking about) it ends up being about 25-30% less effective with through-put about 25% below the other two, regardless of what the WiMAX community is saying the engineers are saying something very different. Add to that the number of chips, you have to follow the chip sets, avaialble for UMTS and CDMA and I think that paints a pretty clear picture and then add ot that the fact that WiMAX started life as a data only technology and is adding VoIP, and the fact: There is NOT a single terrestiral data only network in the world that has ever made money! Still saying it, still unchallenged!

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Imran Qidwai, Boston, MA: Talking of all the hype, what do you think of WiMAX? I am asking about it especially in the mature (instead of emerging) markets. Is there indeed a scenario in your opinion where WiMAX will give 3G a run for its money?



Andy Seybold: In a short answer NO. It works great for back-haul, perhaps if there were spectrum in the 700 MHz band that would go either WiMAX or CDMA or UMTS it might have a chance but in areas where 3G technologies are already in the gournd I do not see anywhat that WiMAX can compete. As an ADJUNCT to 3G networks, perhaps Sprint putting it in 2.5 MHz as an additioanl airlink for better capacity it has a chance but as a stand alone system to compete with exiting systems, I don't believe so for a minute

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Dan, Denver CO: Hi Andy, T-Mobile claims to be rolling out a personal basestation for the home. 1) Have you seen/heard of this product? 2) What are your thoughts on its possible success?



Andy Seybold: Dan, there are lots of ways to do things in the home. At present I have a repeater in my home for Verizon, outside antenna to an indoor antenna, works great. I have seen a lot of companies that are doing things for the home. If you are talking about a GSM base station that attaches to DSL or cable back-end I think that is one good approach if the cost of the unit is low enough. Others are repeaters, and at 3GSM there were a lot of companies that offered devices to replace your home phone system, you set it on the counter, plug it into your phone line, disconnect the line to the outside world and your existing home phones now are on T-Mobile or what ever network you chose. We are going to see LOTS of this type of stuff enter the market this year. Our wireless phones are fast becoming our only phones and the push is on to provide coverage where ever we need it, however we need it.

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Leonard, Buena Vista, CO: Andy: What did you see in Barcelona about the roll-out of IMS by wireless carriers? Are any of them interested?



Andy Seybold: Leonard, there are contracts in place, in the US at least Cingular with Lucent, in Europe a number of others, in Asia still more. IMS is the rage, it is coming, but I have a problem with IMS as it is today because I believe that it leads to propriity installations and the "standard" does not provide for true interoperability. The other issue is how many companies are going to throw away their SS-7 switches? I think IMS comes to wireless slowly, over time, starting with data services and expanding, slowly, into voice servcies, it will be an evolution not a revolution.

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Wil Engle - San Antonio, TX: Andy welcome.. I'm with Stel-leena Communications here in San Antonio and we recently began deploying what are called Community Co-op Networks with the core focus being on Public Safety. having said that what do you see in regards to Nortel Networks bridge to link Wifi/GSM cell service and do you see anyone besides Alvarion being a player in WiMax here in the USA in regards to MESH WiMax like they are in Europe presently.



Andy Seybold: Wil, sounds interesting, I hope that the first responders get REAL and full priority access, The answer to your other two quesitons is that Nortel is far from being along inthe WiFi/GSM convergence. At 3GSM there were all the "big" guys showing off their stuff, and LOTS of little guys showing stuff off too, FMC, IMS, all play to the WiFi/GSM or CDMA play. Phones are in the market, systems are on the air and perhaps there is a business case out there somewhere. As for Alvarion, I just checked the WiMAX web site and there are at leat two other vendors doing the same thing and I am sure more on the way, Mesh can really be technology independent, it is a type of network not tied to any specific technology. But remember if you use the same spectrum for mesh or hopping as you use to provide a link to the customer the speed and capacity suffers. Mesh over WiMAX as a backhaul makes sense perhaps like this: Cusotmer and access points on 2.5 GHZ, back-haul and mesh hoppoing on 3.5 Ghz, maximises data throughput to the customers and minimizes the number of hardwire connections needed.

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Ron, Atlanta, GA: Any comments on the mobile handset provider consolidations currently in play? Additionally, any comments on the India and China growth potentials and their future w.r.t. handset modes i.e. UMTS vs EVDO?



Andy Seybold: Ron, Consolidation happens in every industry. How many PC and laptop companies are doing business today, how many were there in 85? As for India and China there is huge growth opportunities in both countries, so I am not too sure what you are looking for here. As for handsets it won't be too long before we have handsets that do GSM/CDMA/UMTS/Bluetooth/WiFi, oh an my favorite new thing: Wireeless USB, and least I forget it, a TV receiver in every unit also. The question remains how many of these handset companies can survive and thrive and how do they, in a world where a single chip set becomes the device, differentiate themselves going forward?

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Jeff, Palo Alto, California: Andy, Could you comment on the growing movement behind Metro-fi and its potential for impacting traditional carrier (service) revenue models.



Andy Seybold: Jeff-I can also point you to a number of my commentaries just so you know I am not a beliver in Metro-Fi, my reasons again have nothing to do with the technology, mesch works, access points working putting it all together works. Here are my problems They us unlicesned spectrum, subject to interfence, unregulated spectrum, the city nor anyone else can prevent anyone else from using the specturm and causing interfence. That said interference on the day the system is turned on will be futher impacted by new access points and the system will need constant "tweaking", ok, next point, the systems won't cover very well in doors, so most residents won't get very good service, vistors to the city won't get very good service inside a hotel. it is not a mobile technology, only portable. There are more but that will give you a start.

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Dan M, Providence, RI: Hi Andy, Mobile marketing is huge in Japan and is also picking up in Europe. Do you think it will catch up in the US the same way? Did you see something at Barcelona pointing at this?



Andy Seybold: Dan, all eyes are on mobile marketing, in various ways, in variuos formats and in ways that are hoped with work and won't be intrusive, I think that it will be big everywhere once the balance is reached between how much intrusion we will tolerate and the benifits we get by accepting the markeitn ads. I, for one, want to be 'given' something if I am to pay for (because I pay for my airtime), content that includes marketing messages but I do believe that it will be big and yes, to answer you question 3GSM was full of demos of ads, banner, and content, so it is on its way to the US big time.